Closing spread
SEA -7.5
Total
42
Model margin
+6.6est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.024EPA / play+0.091
- 39.1%Success rate44.0%
- +0.056EPA / dropback+0.141
- -0.165EPA / rush+0.030
- 8.2%Explosive rate11.7%
- -4.59CPOE+4.40
- 40.7%Third-down rate43.4%
- 51.8%Red-zone TD rate60.8%
- 1.54Points / drive2.06
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 30–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 9 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. SEA are 26-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Stanton | 14/26 | 149 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Ellington | 10 | 24 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Drew Stanton | 4 | 23 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 5 | 14 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Robert Hughes | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Brown | 3 | 5 | 61 | 0 |
| Andre Ellington | 5 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 3 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Rob Housler | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 17/22 | 211 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 10 | 73 | 7.3 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 15 | 39 | 2.6 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ricardo Lockette | 1 | 1 | 48 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 3 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Tony Moeaki | 4 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Cooper Helfet | 2 | 2 | 27 | 1 |
| Luke Willson | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 1 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Kevin Norwood | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 2 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
2.24%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.3%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.08
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.57