2014 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Drew Stanton

3·19

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 51°F · wind 10mph

Closing spread

SEA -7.5

Total

42

Model margin

+6.6est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.024EPA / play+0.091
  • 39.1%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.056EPA / dropback+0.141
  • -0.165EPA / rush+0.030
  • 8.2%Explosive rate11.7%
  • -4.59CPOE+4.40
  • 40.7%Third-down rate43.4%
  • 51.8%Red-zone TD rate60.8%
  • 1.54Points / drive2.06
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999

SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. SEA are 27-21-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2SEA @ ARI31–7SEA
2025 · W10ARI @ SEA22–44SEA
2025 · W4SEA @ ARI23–20SEA
2024 · W14SEA @ ARI30–18SEA
2024 · W12ARI @ SEA6–16SEA
2023 · W18SEA @ ARI21–20SEA
2023 · W7ARI @ SEA10–20SEA
2022 · W9SEA @ ARI31–21SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–SEA
ARIQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
SEAQ1 13:25840Field goal0–3
ARIQ1 8:4557Missed field goal0–3
SEAQ1 6:593-7Punt0–3
ARIQ1 5:17730Punt0–3
SEAQ1 0:30442Field goal0–6
ARIQ2 12:52215Turnover0–6
SEAQ2 12:01414Field goal0–9
ARIQ2 10:093-7Punt0–9
SEAQ2 8:38527Missed field goal0–9
ARIQ2 5:281669Field goal3–9
SEAQ2 0:1400End of half3–9
SEAQ3 15:003-4Punt3–9
ARIQ3 12:4830Punt3–9
SEAQ3 11:0437Field goal3–12
ARIQ3 8:3439Punt3–12
SEAQ3 6:33980Touchdown3–19
ARIQ3 0:52755Punt3–19
SEAQ4 13:03731Punt3–19
ARIQ4 9:08523Punt3–19
SEAQ4 6:531065End of half3–19

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Stanton14/2614901

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Andre Ellington10242.40
Drew Stanton4235.80
Stepfan Taylor5142.80
Robert Hughes133.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
John Brown35610
Andre Ellington58390
John Carlson34250
Jaron Brown36240
Rob Housler0100
Michael Floyd0200

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson17/2221110

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Russell Wilson10737.30
Marshawn Lynch15392.60
Robert Turbin4123.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Ricardo Lockette11480
Marshawn Lynch34430
Tony Moeaki44340
Cooper Helfet22271
Luke Willson11210
Jermaine Kearse12190
Kevin Norwood12100
Doug Baldwin2260
Robert Turbin2330

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +7.53.2%6.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

2.24%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.3%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+4.08
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.57