2014 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

31·28

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 51°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

DAL -4

Total

48.5

Model margin

-0.6est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapGiants
  • +0.117EPA / play-0.014
  • 46.6%Success rate41.2%
  • +0.286EPA / dropback+0.072
  • -0.068EPA / rush-0.147
  • 10.8%Explosive rate7.7%
  • +5.68CPOE+0.79
  • 47.6%Third-down rate43.5%
  • 70.8%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
  • 2.36Points / drive1.78
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 32–24 since 1999

NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1DAL @ NYG20–28NYG
2025 · W18DAL @ NYG17–34NYG
2025 · W2NYG @ DAL37–40DAL
2024 · W13NYG @ DAL20–27DAL
2024 · W4DAL @ NYG20–15DAL
2023 · W10NYG @ DAL17–49DAL
2023 · W1DAL @ NYG40–0DAL
2022 · W12NYG @ DAL20–28DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–NYG
DALQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
NYGQ1 14:081380Touchdown0–7
DALQ1 7:01760Field goal3–7
NYGQ1 2:45666Touchdown3–14
DALQ2 14:52977Touchdown10–14
NYGQ2 9:151177Touchdown10–21
DALQ2 3:183-7Punt10–21
NYGQ2 2:173-8Punt10–21
DALQ2 1:06425Turnover10–21
NYGQ2 0:09222End of half10–21
NYGQ3 15:0038Punt10–21
DALQ3 13:18617Punt10–21
NYGQ3 10:3937Punt10–21
DALQ3 8:34465Touchdown17–21
NYGQ3 6:351038Turnover17–21
DALQ3 3:03452Touchdown24–21
NYGQ3 1:08525Punt24–21
DALQ4 12:10520Punt24–21
NYGQ4 9:121493Touchdown24–28
DALQ4 3:00775Touchdown31–28
NYGQ4 1:0149Turnover on downs31–28
DALQ4 0:4000End of half31–28

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo18/2627540

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray241215.00
Tony Romo1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez Bryant79862
Cole Beasley22661
Jason Witten46301
James Hanna11270
Lance Dunbar11260
DeMarco Murray23220
Terrance Williams12180
Gavin Escobar0100

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning29/4033831

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Rashad Jennings19522.70
Andre Williams10353.51
Odell Beckham Jr.1-2-2.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Odell Beckham Jr.10111462
Rashad Jennings810680
Rueben Randle33360
Daniel Fells34350
Larry Donnell24240
Preston Parker13160
Andre Williams12120
Adrien Robinson1111

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -42.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.48%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

47.5%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.51
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin-0.58