Closing spread
DAL -4
Total
48.5
Model margin
-0.6est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.117EPA / play-0.014
- 46.6%Success rate41.2%
- +0.286EPA / dropback+0.072
- -0.068EPA / rush-0.147
- 10.8%Explosive rate7.7%
- +5.68CPOE+0.79
- 47.6%Third-down rate43.5%
- 70.8%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 2.36Points / drive1.78
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 32–24 since 1999
NYG have won 2 straight. Meetings average 47.2 points. NYG are 29-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 18/26 | 275 | 4 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 24 | 121 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 7 | 9 | 86 | 2 |
| Cole Beasley | 2 | 2 | 66 | 1 |
| Jason Witten | 4 | 6 | 30 | 1 |
| James Hanna | 1 | 1 | 27 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 1 | 1 | 26 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Gavin Escobar | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 29/40 | 338 | 3 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rashad Jennings | 19 | 52 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Andre Williams | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 1 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 10 | 11 | 146 | 2 |
| Rashad Jennings | 8 | 10 | 68 | 0 |
| Rueben Randle | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Daniel Fells | 3 | 4 | 35 | 0 |
| Larry Donnell | 2 | 4 | 24 | 0 |
| Preston Parker | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Andre Williams | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Adrien Robinson | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.48%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.5%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.51
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin-0.58