Closing spread
GB -7.5
Total
50
Model margin
-0.2est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Vikings
- Packers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.142EPA / play-0.034
- 47.1%Success rate42.2%
- +0.317EPA / dropback-0.018
- -0.133EPA / rush-0.061
- 11.3%Explosive rate7.6%
- +2.68CPOE-2.18
- 47.1%Third-down rate39.7%
- 63.9%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 2.59Points / drive1.59
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 19/29 | 209 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 25 | 125 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 6 | 34 | 5.7 | 0 |
| James Starks | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordy Nelson | 8 | 12 | 68 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 4 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| Andrew Quarless | 2 | 3 | 50 | 0 |
| Eddie Lacy | 2 | 2 | 13 | 1 |
| Davante Adams | 1 | 4 | 10 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| James Starks | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 21/37 | 210 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jerick McKinnon | 15 | 54 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 5 | 32 | 6.4 | 0 |
| Joe Banyard | 5 | 26 | 5.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles D. Johnson | 3 | 11 | 52 | 1 |
| Kyle Rudolph | 3 | 5 | 50 | 0 |
| Greg Jennings | 4 | 6 | 38 | 1 |
| Joe Banyard | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Chase Ford | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 2 | 4 | 11 | 0 |
| Jerick McKinnon | 3 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.
Half-point at risk
4.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.4%
Expected total
46.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.72
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.23