2014 · Week 12 · Division

Final

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

24·21

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Teddy Bridgewater

TCF Bank Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 49°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

GB -7.5

Total

50

Model margin

-0.2est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Packers

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Packers

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsPackers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Packersedge mapVikings
  • +0.142EPA / play-0.034
  • 47.1%Success rate42.2%
  • +0.317EPA / dropback-0.018
  • -0.133EPA / rush-0.061
  • 11.3%Explosive rate7.6%
  • +2.68CPOE-2.18
  • 47.1%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 63.9%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
  • 2.59Points / drive1.59
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 31–24–2 since 1999

MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.8 points. MIN are 29-28 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W1GB @ MIN22–39MIN
2025 · W18GB @ MIN3–16MIN
2025 · W12MIN @ GB6–23GB
2024 · W17GB @ MIN25–27MIN
2024 · W4MIN @ GB31–29MIN
2023 · W17GB @ MIN33–10GB
2023 · W8MIN @ GB24–10MIN
2022 · W17MIN @ GB17–41GB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultGB–MIN
GBQ1 15:00517Punt0–0
MINQ1 12:17426Punt0–0
GBQ1 10:56737Punt0–0
MINQ1 7:22523Punt0–0
GBQ1 4:44748Touchdown7–0
MINQ1 1:341569Touchdown7–7
GBQ2 11:06528Punt7–7
MINQ2 8:52410Turnover7–7
GBQ2 7:22463Touchdown14–7
MINQ2 5:231157Field goal14–10
GBQ2 0:1600End of half14–10
MINQ3 15:0049Punt14–10
GBQ3 12:42928Punt14–10
MINQ3 8:35617Field goal14–13
GBQ3 6:42835Field goal17–13
MINQ3 2:41413Punt17–13
GBQ4 14:521282Touchdown24–13
MINQ4 8:341484Touchdown24–21
GBQ4 3:23527End of half24–21

Box score

Individual performances

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers19/2920920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie Lacy251255.01
Aaron Rodgers6345.70
James Starks1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordy Nelson812680
Randall Cobb45580
Andrew Quarless23500
Eddie Lacy22131
Davante Adams14100
Richard Rodgers1111
James Starks0100

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater21/3721021

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jerick McKinnon15543.60
Teddy Bridgewater5326.40
Joe Banyard5265.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Charles D. Johnson311521
Kyle Rudolph35500
Greg Jennings46381
Joe Banyard33190
Cordarrelle Patterson22180
Chase Ford11130
Rhett Ellison24110
Jerick McKinnon3390
Jarius Wright0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -7.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Packers.

Half-point at risk

4.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.4%

Expected total

46.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.72
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.23