Closing spread
KC -7.5
Total
42
Model margin
+2.6est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 35–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. OAK are 27-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 20/36 | 234 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 19 | 80 | 4.2 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 5 | 67 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 3 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 4 | 7 | 42 | 1 |
| Anthony Fasano | 2 | 2 | 30 | 1 |
| Albert Wilson | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 2 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Frankie Hammond | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Junior Hemingway | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
3.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.1%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.14
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.62
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.