Closing spread
KC -7.5
Total
42
Model margin
+2.6est.
OAK perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chiefs
- OutA.J. JenkinsWRShoulder· DNP
- OutChristopher OwensCBKnee· DNP
- OutDonnie AveryWRGroin· DNP
- QuestionableAnthony FasanoTEKnee· Limited
- QuestionableJamell FlemingCBHamstring· Limited
- ProbableMike McGlynnGKnee· Full
- ProbablePhillip GainesCBAnkle· Full
- ProbableSean SmithCBGroin· Full
- ProbableTamba HaliLBKnee· Full
- ProbableTravis KelceTERibs· Full
- ProbableZach FultonGAnkle· Full
Raiders
- OutCarlos RogersCBKnee· DNP
- OutDavid AusberryTEFoot· DNP
- OutJonathan DowlingSBack· DNP
- OutT.J. CarrieCBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableGabe JacksonGKnee· Limited
- ProbableDerek CarrQBQuadricep· Full
- ProbableMiles BurrisLBHip· Full
Win probability
- Raiders
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.5 points. OAK are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | KC–OAK |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | -4 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 13:31 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 10:59 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 10:02 | 8 | 60 | Touchdown | 0–7 |
| KC | Q1 6:33 | 7 | 33 | Punt | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 2:38 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 0–7 |
| KC | Q1 1:43 | 7 | 29 | Punt | 0–13 |
| LV | Q2 12:40 | 1 | 90 | Touchdown | 0–14 |
| KC | Q2 12:28 | 8 | 36 | Punt | 0–14 |
| KC | Q2 8:11 | 3 | 6 | Field goal | 3–14 |
| LV | Q2 7:19 | 6 | 21 | Punt | 3–14 |
| KC | Q2 3:07 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 3–14 |
| LV | Q2 0:36 | 3 | 3 | End of half | 3–14 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 22 | Punt | 3–14 |
| KC | Q3 12:35 | 5 | 4 | Punt | 3–14 |
| LV | Q3 9:44 | 8 | 27 | Field goal | 3–17 |
| KC | Q3 5:05 | 6 | 70 | Touchdown | 10–17 |
| LV | Q3 1:52 | 6 | 32 | Punt | 10–17 |
| KC | Q4 14:39 | 6 | 85 | Touchdown | 17–17 |
| LV | Q4 12:20 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 17–17 |
| KC | Q4 11:13 | 4 | 30 | Field goal | 20–17 |
| LV | Q4 9:03 | 18 | 71 | Touchdown | 20–24 |
| KC | Q4 1:42 | 8 | 4 | Turnover on downs | 20–24 |
| LV | Q4 0:23 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 20–24 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 20/36 | 234 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 19 | 80 | 4.2 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 5 | 67 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 3 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 4 | 7 | 42 | 1 |
| Anthony Fasano | 2 | 2 | 30 | 1 |
| Albert Wilson | 2 | 2 | 27 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 2 | 6 | 15 | 0 |
| Frankie Hammond | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Junior Hemingway | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Raiders; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
3.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.1%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.14
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.62
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.