2009 · Week 15

Final

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Brett Favre

7·26

Panthers

Carolina

QB Matt Moore

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 37°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

MIN -9

Total

42.5

Model margin

+5.8est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

0.8%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Vikings

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Vikings

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsVikings wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Vikingsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.085EPA / play-0.058
  • 45.1%Success rate40.6%
  • +0.239EPA / dropback-0.092
  • -0.130EPA / rush-0.022
  • 10.4%Explosive rate10.9%
  • +5.77CPOE-3.62
  • 45.4%Third-down rate37.2%
  • 68.8%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
  • 2.31Points / drive1.39
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 9–6 since 1999

MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. CAR are 7-8 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2023 · W4MIN @ CAR21–13MIN
2021 · W6MIN @ CAR34–28MIN
2020 · W12CAR @ MIN27–28MIN
2017 · W14MIN @ CAR24–31CAR
2016 · W3MIN @ CAR22–10MIN
2014 · W13CAR @ MIN13–31MIN
2013 · W6CAR @ MIN35–10CAR
2011 · W8MIN @ CAR24–21MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIN–CAR
CARQ1 15:0034Punt0–0
MINQ1 13:3258Punt0–0
CARQ1 10:4034Punt0–0
MINQ1 9:2135Punt0–0
CARQ1 6:583-14Punt0–0
MINQ1 5:2634Missed field goal0–0
CARQ1 3:561573Touchdown0–6
MINQ2 10:5538Punt0–6
CARQ2 9:0237Punt0–6
MINQ2 8:02641Touchdown7–6
CARQ2 5:011042Turnover on downs7–6
MINQ3 15:0035Punt7–6
CARQ3 13:55626Punt7–6
MINQ3 11:22528Punt7–6
CARQ3 9:5436Punt7–6
MINQ3 8:24537Turnover7–6
CARQ3 5:50421Punt7–6
MINQ3 3:203-3Punt7–6
CARQ3 2:23859Touchdown7–12
MINQ4 14:49626Punt7–12
CARQ4 12:18677Touchdown7–19
MINQ4 9:18415Punt7–19
CARQ4 8:08880Touchdown7–26
MINQ4 3:07263Turnover7–26
CARQ4 2:30115End of half7–26

Box score

Individual performances

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Brett Favre17/2722401

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Adrian Peterson12352.91
Chester Taylor263.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adrian Peterson34730
Sidney Rice44690
Bernard Berrian35250
Visanthe Shiancoe36240
Jimmy Kleinsasser22160
Percy Harvin13100
Chester Taylor1370

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Moore21/3329930

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart251094.41
DeAngelo Williams6132.20
Tyrell Sutton294.50
Matt Moore5-2-0.40
Steve Smith1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Steve Smith9141571
Gary Barnidge12550
Muhsin Muhammad23290
Jeff King34170
Jonathan Stewart23141
Tyrell Sutton12120
Dante Rosario11110
DeAngelo Williams1130
Kenny Moore0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -93.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Vikings.

Half-point at risk

0.78%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.5%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.31
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+4.66
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.84