Closing spread
MIN -9
Total
42.5
Model margin
+5.8est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
0.8%est.
Win probability
- Panthers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.085EPA / play-0.058
- 45.1%Success rate40.6%
- +0.239EPA / dropback-0.092
- -0.130EPA / rush-0.022
- 10.4%Explosive rate10.9%
- +5.77CPOE-3.62
- 45.4%Third-down rate37.2%
- 68.8%Red-zone TD rate55.1%
- 2.31Points / drive1.39
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 9–6 since 1999
MIN have won 3 straight. Meetings average 42.3 points. CAR are 7-8 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brett Favre | 17/27 | 224 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 12 | 35 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Chester Taylor | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Peterson | 3 | 4 | 73 | 0 |
| Sidney Rice | 4 | 4 | 69 | 0 |
| Bernard Berrian | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Visanthe Shiancoe | 3 | 6 | 24 | 0 |
| Jimmy Kleinsasser | 2 | 2 | 16 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Chester Taylor | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Moore | 21/33 | 299 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 25 | 109 | 4.4 | 1 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 6 | 13 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Tyrell Sutton | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Matt Moore | 5 | -2 | -0.4 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Smith | 9 | 14 | 157 | 1 |
| Gary Barnidge | 1 | 2 | 55 | 0 |
| Muhsin Muhammad | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Jeff King | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 2 | 3 | 14 | 1 |
| Tyrell Sutton | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Kenny Moore | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
0.78%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.5%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.31
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+4.66
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.84