Closing spread
KC -1
Total
49
Model margin
+0.6est.
KC perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.083EPA / play+0.026
- 46.3%Success rate42.6%
- +0.188EPA / dropback+0.093
- -0.075EPA / rush-0.081
- 10.7%Explosive rate8.2%
- +3.06CPOE-1.58
- 44.4%Third-down rate40.0%
- 70.9%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
- 2.29Points / drive1.99
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–24 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. KC are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 17/34 | 179 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Anderson | 32 | 168 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Juwan Thompson | 10 | 39 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | -6 | -3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Sanders | 6 | 11 | 73 | 0 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 6 | 13 | 63 | 1 |
| C.J. Anderson | 2 | 3 | 17 | 1 |
| Wes Welker | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cody Latimer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 15/23 | 153 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 10 | 35 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 5 | 6 | 1.2 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 4 | 6 | 24 | 1 |
| Anthony Fasano | 1 | 1 | 20 | 1 |
| Donnie Avery | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 2 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.16%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.7%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.14
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+0.59