2014 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

29·16

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

Arrowhead Stadium · outdoors · grass · 27°F · wind 18mph

Closing spread

KC -1

Total

49

Model margin

+0.6est.

KC perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Broncos

Chiefs

Win probability

  • Chiefs
  • Broncos

How each play moved the game.

Chiefs winsBroncos wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Broncosedge mapChiefs
  • +0.083EPA / play+0.026
  • 46.3%Success rate42.6%
  • +0.188EPA / dropback+0.093
  • -0.075EPA / rush-0.081
  • 10.7%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +3.06CPOE-1.58
  • 44.4%Third-down rate40.0%
  • 70.9%Red-zone TD rate64.7%
  • 2.29Points / drive1.99
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

KC lead 31–25 since 1999

Meetings average 43.9 points. KC are 28-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8KC @ DEN24–28DEN
2026 · W1DEN @ KC10–31KC
2025 · W17DEN @ KC20–13DEN
2025 · W11KC @ DEN19–22DEN
2024 · W18KC @ DEN0–38DEN
2024 · W10DEN @ KC14–16KC
2023 · W8KC @ DEN9–24DEN
2023 · W6DEN @ KC8–19KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDEN–KC
KCQ1 15:0035Punt0–0
DENQ1 13:51874Touchdown7–0
KCQ1 8:573-11Punt7–0
DENQ1 6:441048Touchdown14–0
KCQ1 1:583-4Punt14–0
DENQ1 0:121468Field goal17–0
KCQ2 7:14769Touchdown17–7
DENQ2 3:021048Field goal20–7
KCQ2 0:1600End of half20–7
DENQ3 15:0032Turnover20–7
KCQ3 14:0032Field goal20–10
DENQ3 12:43937Punt20–10
KCQ3 7:2310Turnover20–10
DENQ3 7:1432Field goal23–10
KCQ3 6:1635Punt23–10
DENQ3 4:073-2Punt23–10
DENQ3 2:50833Field goal26–10
KCQ4 14:44750Touchdown26–16
DENQ4 11:46865Field goal29–16
KCQ4 7:333-10Punt29–16
DENQ4 6:0135Punt29–16
KCQ4 5:40655Turnover29–16
DENQ4 3:4439Punt29–16
KCQ4 2:014-10Turnover on downs29–16
DENQ4 0:2500End of half29–16

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning17/3417920

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Anderson321685.30
Juwan Thompson10393.90
Peyton Manning2-6-3.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Emmanuel Sanders611730
Demaryius Thomas613631
C.J. Anderson23171
Wes Welker12120
Virgil Green11100
Jacob Tamme1240
Andre Caldwell0100
Cody Latimer0100

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith15/2315321

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles10353.50
Alex Smith561.20

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Travis Kelce33360
Jason Avant24300
Jamaal Charles46241
Anthony Fasano11201
Donnie Avery12200
Dwayne Bowe25180
De'Anthony Thomas2250

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Broncos.

Half-point at risk

2.16%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.7%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.14
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+0.59