Closing spread
MIA -6.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
+2.1est.
NYJ perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Jets
- Dolphins
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.019EPA / play-0.074
- 48.7%Success rate40.5%
- +0.065EPA / dropback-0.051
- -0.063EPA / rush-0.104
- 8.7%Explosive rate8.4%
- +2.14CPOE-3.58
- 41.5%Third-down rate39.3%
- 49.5%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
- 1.97Points / drive1.41
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 28–26 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. NYJ are 28-23-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 25/35 | 235 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 13 | 56 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 4 | 13 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Wallace | 6 | 11 | 69 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 8 | 11 | 68 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 4 | 4 | 58 | 0 |
| Brandon Gibson | 2 | 3 | 17 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Brian Hartline | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Gator Hoskins | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 7/13 | 65 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 17 | 105 | 6.2 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 16 | 62 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 2 | 38 | 19.0 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 6 | 27 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Greg Salas | 1 | 20 | 20.0 | 1 |
| Geno Smith | 4 | 19 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Sudfeld | 1 | 1 | 20 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 2 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Percy Harvin | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.
Half-point at risk
2.71%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.8%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.28
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.13