2014 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

16·13

Jets

New York

QB Geno Smith

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 42°F · wind 6mph

Closing spread

MIA -6.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

+2.1est.

NYJ perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Dolphins

Jets

Win probability

  • Jets
  • Dolphins

How each play moved the game.

Jets winsDolphins wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Dolphinsedge mapJets
  • +0.019EPA / play-0.074
  • 48.7%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.065EPA / dropback-0.051
  • -0.063EPA / rush-0.104
  • 8.7%Explosive rate8.4%
  • +2.14CPOE-3.58
  • 41.5%Third-down rate39.3%
  • 49.5%Red-zone TD rate47.3%
  • 1.97Points / drive1.41
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 29–26 since 1999

MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. NYJ are 28-24-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7MIA @ NYJ28–25MIA
2025 · W14MIA @ NYJ34–10MIA
2025 · W4NYJ @ MIA21–27MIA
2024 · W18MIA @ NYJ20–32NYJ
2024 · W14NYJ @ MIA26–32MIA
2023 · W15NYJ @ MIA0–30MIA
2023 · W12MIA @ NYJ34–13MIA
2022 · W18NYJ @ MIA6–11MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultMIA–NYJ
NYJQ1 15:00739Punt0–0
MIAQ1 12:1538Punt0–0
NYJQ1 10:43685Touchdown0–7
MIAQ1 7:451067Missed field goal0–7
NYJQ1 1:47944Field goal0–10
MIAQ2 12:0138Punt0–10
NYJQ2 10:321364Missed field goal0–10
MIAQ2 3:231042Field goal3–10
MIAQ3 15:00837Field goal6–10
NYJQ3 10:56638Field goal6–13
MIAQ3 7:1733Punt6–13
NYJQ3 5:3235Punt6–13
MIAQ3 4:2210Turnover6–13
NYJQ3 4:093-8Punt6–13
MIAQ3 2:00536Punt6–13
NYJQ4 14:4731Punt6–13
MIAQ4 12:53639Touchdown13–13
NYJQ4 10:24834Missed field goal13–13
MIAQ4 5:42952Field goal16–13
NYJQ4 1:57624Turnover16–13
MIAQ4 0:3400End of half16–13

Box score

Individual performances

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill25/3523501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller13564.31
Ryan Tannehill4133.30
Daniel Thomas155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Mike Wallace611690
Jarvis Landry811680
Dion Sims44580
Brandon Gibson23170
Lamar Miller23110
Brian Hartline1190
Daniel Thomas1130
Gator Hoskins1100

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith7/136501

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson171056.20
Chris Ivory16623.90
Jeremy Kerley23819.00
Percy Harvin6274.50
Greg Salas12020.01
Geno Smith4194.80
Bilal Powell242.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Sudfeld11200
Bilal Powell23190
Eric Decker24180
Percy Harvin1360
Jeremy Kerley1120
Jeff Cumberland0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.54.1%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%

Positive margins favour Jets; negative favour Dolphins.

Half-point at risk

2.71%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.8%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.28
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+2.13