2014 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Mark Sanchez

33·10

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

AT&T Stadium · closed · matrixturf

Closing spread

DAL -3

Total

56.5

Model margin

+5.1est.

DAL perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Cowboys

Win probability

  • Cowboys
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Cowboys winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCowboys
  • -0.005EPA / play+0.117
  • 43.7%Success rate46.6%
  • +0.063EPA / dropback+0.286
  • -0.113EPA / rush-0.068
  • 9.9%Explosive rate10.8%
  • -0.76CPOE+5.68
  • 44.2%Third-down rate47.6%
  • 57.8%Red-zone TD rate70.8%
  • 1.88Points / drive2.36
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 29–27 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. DAL are 28-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DAL @ PHI38–21DAL
2025 · W12PHI @ DAL21–24DAL
2025 · W1DAL @ PHI20–24PHI
2024 · W17DAL @ PHI7–41PHI
2024 · W10PHI @ DAL34–6PHI
2023 · W14PHI @ DAL13–33DAL
2023 · W9DAL @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W16PHI @ DAL34–40DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–DAL
PHIQ1 15:00980Touchdown7–0
DALQ1 11:551135Punt7–0
PHIQ1 6:09788Touchdown14–0
DALQ1 4:08767Touchdown14–7
PHIQ2 14:56767Field goal17–7
DALQ2 12:1037Punt17–7
PHIQ2 10:1836Punt17–7
DALQ2 8:45513Punt17–7
PHIQ2 5:311448Field goal20–7
DALQ2 1:3519Turnover20–7
PHIQ2 1:1933Field goal23–7
DALQ2 0:2100End of half23–7
DALQ3 15:00525Punt23–7
PHIQ3 11:4021Turnover23–7
DALQ3 11:2133Field goal23–10
PHIQ3 9:12665Touchdown30–10
DALQ3 7:201123Turnover30–10
PHIQ3 2:371467Field goal33–10
DALQ4 11:01638Turnover on downs33–10
PHIQ4 9:2736Punt33–10
DALQ4 7:0837Punt33–10
PHIQ4 5:3939Punt33–10
DALQ4 4:52541Turnover33–10
PHIQ4 4:13425End of half33–10

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez20/2921710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy251596.41
Chris Polk11494.50
Mark Sanchez7284.01
Darren Sproles11313.00
Josh Huff177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Maclin8101080
Jordan Matthews45511
Riley Cooper47320
Darren Sproles33190
Brent Celek1270
Brad Smith0100
Zach Ertz0100

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo18/2919902

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray20733.61
Lance Dunbar2157.50
Joseph Randle263.00
Tony Romo1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez Bryant47730
Cole Beasley47410
DeMarco Murray66400
Terrance Williams24380
Jason Witten1280
Devin Street0200
Joseph Randle11-10

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +33.5%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

7.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.7%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.63
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.12