Closing spread
DAL -3
Total
56.5
Model margin
+5.1est.
DAL perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cowboys
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.005EPA / play+0.117
- 43.7%Success rate46.6%
- +0.063EPA / dropback+0.286
- -0.113EPA / rush-0.068
- 9.9%Explosive rate10.8%
- -0.76CPOE+5.68
- 44.2%Third-down rate47.6%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate70.8%
- 1.88Points / drive2.36
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. DAL are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 20/29 | 217 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 25 | 159 | 6.4 | 1 |
| Chris Polk | 11 | 49 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Josh Huff | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Maclin | 8 | 10 | 108 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 4 | 5 | 51 | 1 |
| Riley Cooper | 4 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Brad Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 18/29 | 199 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 20 | 73 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Lance Dunbar | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Joseph Randle | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 4 | 7 | 73 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 4 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 6 | 6 | 40 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 2 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Devin Street | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Joseph Randle | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cowboys; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.7%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.63
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.12