Closing spread
SF -1
Total
40
Model margin
-1.4est.
SF perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- 49ers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.091EPA / play-0.029
- 44.0%Success rate42.6%
- +0.141EPA / dropback+0.061
- +0.030EPA / rush-0.167
- 11.7%Explosive rate9.9%
- +4.40CPOE-2.41
- 43.4%Third-down rate40.5%
- 60.8%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
- 2.06Points / drive1.44
- 1.2%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SF are 21-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 15/22 | 236 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 20 | 104 | 5.2 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Christine Michael | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 4 | 8 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Moeaki | 1 | 2 | 63 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 2 | 2 | 47 | 1 |
| Luke Willson | 4 | 6 | 39 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 3 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 2 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Christine Michael | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 16/29 | 121 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 10 | 28 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 5 | 19 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Steve Johnson | 3 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 3 | 5 | 18 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 2 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 1 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 1 | 6 | 6 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
2.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
45.4%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.86
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.37