2014 · Week 13 · Division

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

19·3

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 68°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

SF -1

Total

40

Model margin

-1.4est.

SF perspective

Push chance

2.1%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge map49ers
  • +0.091EPA / play-0.029
  • 44.0%Success rate42.6%
  • +0.141EPA / dropback+0.061
  • +0.030EPA / rush-0.167
  • 11.7%Explosive rate9.9%
  • +4.40CPOE-2.41
  • 43.4%Third-down rate40.5%
  • 60.8%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
  • 2.06Points / drive1.44
  • 1.2%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. SF are 22-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5SF @ SEA32–29SF
2025 · playoffsSF @ SEA6–41SEA
2025 · W18SEA @ SF13–3SEA
2025 · W1SF @ SEA17–13SF
2024 · W11SEA @ SF20–17SEA
2024 · W6SF @ SEA36–24SF
2023 · W14SEA @ SF16–28SF
2023 · W12SF @ SEA31–13SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–SF
SFQ1 15:00516Punt0–0
SEAQ1 12:41420Punt0–0
SFQ1 10:153-2Punt0–0
SEAQ1 8:3738Punt0–0
SFQ1 7:0432Turnover0–0
SEAQ1 5:29840Touchdown7–0
SFQ1 1:29714Punt7–0
SEAQ2 13:45663Field goal10–0
SFQ2 11:07415Punt10–0
SEAQ2 9:00547Field goal13–0
SFQ2 5:4030Punt13–0
SEAQ2 4:05513Punt13–0
SEAQ2 2:2336Punt13–0
SFQ2 0:43426End of half13–0
SEAQ3 15:001175Field goal16–0
SFQ3 8:051444Field goal16–3
SEAQ3 1:06952Field goal19–3
SFQ4 10:11923Turnover19–3
SEAQ4 7:041255Turnover on downs19–3
SFQ4 1:54626End of half19–3

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson15/2223610

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch201045.20
Russell Wilson7355.00
Christine Michael3103.30
Robert Turbin482.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tony Moeaki12630
Robert Turbin22471
Luke Willson46390
Jermaine Kearse35340
Doug Baldwin24280
Christine Michael11120
Marshawn Lynch1170
Paul Richardson1160

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick16/2912102

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore10282.80
Carlos Hyde5193.80
Colin Kaepernick3175.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Carlos Hyde33380
Steve Johnson36280
Anquan Boldin35180
Vernon Davis23130
Michael Crabtree33100
Frank Gore1280
Brandon Lloyd1660

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +12.9%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

2.13%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

45.4%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.86
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.37