Closing spread
NO -8.5
Total
50.5
Model margin
+0.8est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.007EPA / play+0.067
- 44.6%Success rate47.9%
- +0.059EPA / dropback+0.126
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.043
- 8.5%Explosive rate8.7%
- -1.27CPOE+3.60
- 41.1%Third-down rate48.2%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate62.9%
- 1.63Points / drive2.11
- 1.9%Turnover rate2.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. NO are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 21/33 | 226 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 20 | 155 | 7.8 | 1 |
| Cam Newton | 12 | 83 | 6.9 | 1 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Olsen | 10 | 11 | 72 | 1 |
| Corey Brown | 3 | 5 | 42 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 1 | 1 | 26 | 1 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 2 | 5 | 24 | 1 |
| Ed Dickson | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Brenton Bersin | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 29/49 | 235 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 10 | 43 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 5 | 38 | 7.6 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marques Colston | 5 | 7 | 72 | 0 |
| Nick Toon | 4 | 4 | 45 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 3 | 11 | 25 | 0 |
| Joseph Morgan | 2 | 5 | 23 | 0 |
| Kenny Stills | 3 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 4 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Travaris Cadet | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 2 | 4 | 8 | 1 |
| Josh Hill | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
1.13%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.1%
Expected total
45.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.72
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.76