2014 · Week 14 · Division

Final

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

42·21

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

Paul Brown Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 39°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

CIN -3

Total

47

Model margin

+0.6est.

CIN perspective

Push chance

7.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Steelers

Bengals

Win probability

  • Bengals
  • Steelers

How each play moved the game.

Bengals winsSteelers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Steelersedge mapBengals
  • +0.118EPA / play-0.019
  • 48.4%Success rate42.0%
  • +0.239EPA / dropback-0.017
  • -0.084EPA / rush-0.020
  • 9.0%Explosive rate8.5%
  • +5.59CPOE+0.60
  • 45.6%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 57.4%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
  • 2.26Points / drive1.86
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 41–16 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. CIN are 18-38-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3CIN @ PIT27–30PIT
2025 · W11CIN @ PIT12–34PIT
2025 · W7PIT @ CIN31–33CIN
2024 · W18CIN @ PIT19–17CIN
2024 · W13PIT @ CIN44–38PIT
2023 · W16CIN @ PIT11–34PIT
2023 · W12PIT @ CIN16–10PIT
2022 · W11CIN @ PIT37–30CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPIT–CIN
PITQ1 15:00517Punt0–0
CINQ1 11:35618Turnover on downs0–0
PITQ1 9:3231Punt0–0
CINQ1 8:2239Punt0–0
PITQ1 6:31630Punt0–0
CINQ1 3:19417Punt0–0
PITQ1 0:46975Touchdown7–0
CINQ2 11:17580Touchdown7–7
PITQ2 9:0636Punt7–7
CINQ2 7:421185Touchdown7–14
PITQ2 2:571276Field goal10–14
CINQ2 0:1100End of half10–14
CINQ3 15:00729Punt10–14
PITQ3 11:101190Touchdown17–14
CINQ3 5:2437Punt17–14
PITQ3 3:57419Punt17–14
CINQ3 0:50284Touchdown17–21
PITQ4 15:00454Field goal20–21
CINQ4 13:3223Turnover20–21
PITQ4 12:45424Touchdown28–21
CINQ4 11:27531Punt34–21
PITQ4 8:43194Touchdown35–21
CINQ4 8:3147Punt35–21
PITQ4 7:28650Touchdown42–21
CINQ4 5:0933Punt42–21
PITQ4 3:3638Punt42–21
CINQ4 1:50636Turnover42–21
PITQ4 0:2300End of half42–21

Box score

Individual performances

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger25/3935030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell261857.12
Josh Harris492.30
Ben Roethlisberger1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown9141170
Martavis Bryant461091
Le'Veon Bell69501
Markus Wheaton23310
Lance Moore12290
Matt Spaeth22130
Heath Miller1311

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton21/2930220
Jason Campbell4/62500

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeremy Hill8465.80
Andy Dalton4225.51
Giovani Bernard6172.80
Jason Campbell111.00
Cedric Peerman100.00
Mohamed Sanu100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green11152241
Jermaine Gresham34231
Jeremy Hill34210
Giovani Bernard35190
Kevin Brock22180
Mohamed Sanu23160
Greg Little1160
Brandon Tate0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +32.6%4.3%2.9%7.3%7.4%3.0%4.5%2.8%

Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.

Half-point at risk

7.41%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

50.7%

Expected total

44.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.88
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+0.60