Closing spread
CIN -3
Total
47
Model margin
+0.6est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Bengals
- Steelers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.118EPA / play-0.019
- 48.4%Success rate42.0%
- +0.239EPA / dropback-0.017
- -0.084EPA / rush-0.020
- 9.0%Explosive rate8.5%
- +5.59CPOE+0.60
- 45.6%Third-down rate39.7%
- 57.4%Red-zone TD rate53.0%
- 2.26Points / drive1.86
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. CIN are 18-37-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 25/39 | 350 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 26 | 185 | 7.1 | 2 |
| Josh Harris | 4 | 9 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 9 | 14 | 117 | 0 |
| Martavis Bryant | 4 | 6 | 109 | 1 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 6 | 9 | 50 | 1 |
| Markus Wheaton | 2 | 3 | 31 | 0 |
| Lance Moore | 1 | 2 | 29 | 0 |
| Matt Spaeth | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 21/29 | 302 | 2 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 4/6 | 25 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Hill | 8 | 46 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 4 | 22 | 5.5 | 1 |
| Giovani Bernard | 6 | 17 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Jason Campbell | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Cedric Peerman | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 11 | 15 | 224 | 1 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 3 | 4 | 23 | 1 |
| Jeremy Hill | 3 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 3 | 5 | 19 | 0 |
| Kevin Brock | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Greg Little | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Steelers.
Half-point at risk
7.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.7%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-1.88
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.60