Closing spread
STL -6
Total
40.5
Model margin
+3.2est.
STL perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Cardinals
- OutPaul FanaikaGAnkle· DNP
- OutTyrann MathieuSThumb· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- QuestionableAntonio CromartieCBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableEd StinsonDTToe· Limited
- ProbableDrew StantonQBAnkle· Full
- ProbableJared VeldheerTAnkle· Full
- ProbableLarry FitzgeraldWRKnee· Full
- ProbableLarry FooteLBFoot· Full
- ProbableLorenzo AlexanderLBKnee· Full
- ProbableMatt ShaughnessyLBShoulder· Full
Rams
- QuestionableChris LongDEAnkle· Full
- ProbableAlex CarringtonDTThigh· Full
- ProbableCory HarkeyTEKnee· Full
- ProbableJames LaurinaitisLBAnkle· Full
- ProbableKenny BrittWRNot Injury Related· Full
- ProbableRodger SaffoldGShoulder· Full
- ProbableScott WellsCElbow· Full
- ProbableWill HerringLBFoot· Full
Win probability
- Rams
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 29–21 since 1999
Meetings average 42.8 points. STL are 25-24-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 6 | 25 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 11:40 | 7 | 48 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| ARI | Q1 6:57 | 7 | 34 | Punt | 0–3 |
| LA | Q1 2:05 | 1 | 1 | Turnover | 0–3 |
| ARI | Q1 1:57 | 6 | 22 | Field goal | 3–3 |
| LA | Q2 13:36 | 6 | 29 | Punt | 3–3 |
| ARI | Q2 10:47 | 7 | 59 | Field goal | 6–3 |
| LA | Q2 8:25 | 4 | 19 | Punt | 6–3 |
| ARI | Q2 6:45 | 8 | 33 | Punt | 6–3 |
| LA | Q2 3:09 | 10 | 42 | Punt | 6–3 |
| ARI | Q2 0:17 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 6–3 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 6–3 |
| ARI | Q3 13:25 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 6–3 |
| LA | Q3 11:48 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 6–3 |
| ARI | Q3 10:49 | 6 | 1 | Field goal | 9–3 |
| LA | Q3 7:23 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 9–3 |
| ARI | Q3 5:45 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 9–3 |
| LA | Q3 4:14 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 9–3 |
| ARI | Q3 3:04 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 9–3 |
| LA | Q3 1:24 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 9–3 |
| ARI | Q4 14:50 | 8 | 44 | Field goal | 12–3 |
| LA | Q4 10:48 | 9 | 71 | Field goal | 12–6 |
| ARI | Q4 6:07 | 5 | 13 | Punt | 12–6 |
| LA | Q4 2:52 | 7 | 39 | Turnover on downs | 12–6 |
| ARI | Q4 1:23 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 12–6 |
| LA | Q4 0:18 | 4 | 16 | Turnover | 12–6 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Stanton | 12/20 | 109 | 0 | 0 |
| Ryan Lindley | 4/10 | 30 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerwynn Williams | 15 | 75 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 14 | 61 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Drew Stanton | 2 | 3 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Rob Housler | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Floyd | 2 | 3 | 55 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 7 | 10 | 30 | 0 |
| John Brown | 2 | 6 | 22 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Kerwynn Williams | 2 | 5 | 11 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
3.14%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.7%
Expected total
43.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.74
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.23
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.