Closing spread
PHI -3.5
Total
54.5
Model margin
-0.4est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Eagles
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.117EPA / play-0.005
- 46.6%Success rate43.7%
- +0.286EPA / dropback+0.063
- -0.068EPA / rush-0.113
- 10.8%Explosive rate9.9%
- +5.68CPOE-0.76
- 47.6%Third-down rate44.2%
- 70.8%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
- 2.36Points / drive1.88
- 2.2%Turnover rate3.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. PHI are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 22/31 | 265 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 31 | 81 | 2.6 | 2 |
| Lance Dunbar | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
| Joseph Randle | 2 | 13 | 6.5 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 4 | -1 | -0.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 6 | 7 | 114 | 3 |
| Jason Witten | 7 | 9 | 69 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 4 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 2 | 4 | 19 | 0 |
| James Hanna | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 |
| Dwayne Harris | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 17/28 | 252 | 0 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 16 | 64 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Chris Polk | 2 | 6 | 3.0 | 2 |
| Darren Sproles | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Maclin | 4 | 6 | 98 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 4 | 6 | 52 | 0 |
| Josh Huff | 1 | 2 | 44 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 3 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
2.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.0%
Expected total
45.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.63
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.24
- Expected margin-0.38