2014 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

38·27

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Mark Sanchez

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 41°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

PHI -3.5

Total

54.5

Model margin

-0.4est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapEagles
  • +0.117EPA / play-0.005
  • 46.6%Success rate43.7%
  • +0.286EPA / dropback+0.063
  • -0.068EPA / rush-0.113
  • 10.8%Explosive rate9.9%
  • +5.68CPOE-0.76
  • 47.6%Third-down rate44.2%
  • 70.8%Red-zone TD rate57.8%
  • 2.36Points / drive1.88
  • 2.2%Turnover rate3.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 29–27 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. PHI are 27-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DAL @ PHI38–21DAL
2025 · W12PHI @ DAL21–24DAL
2025 · W1DAL @ PHI20–24PHI
2024 · W17DAL @ PHI7–41PHI
2024 · W10PHI @ DAL34–6PHI
2023 · W14PHI @ DAL13–33DAL
2023 · W9DAL @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W16PHI @ DAL34–40DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–PHI
PHIQ1 15:0000Touchdown0–0
DALQ1 14:55518Touchdown7–0
PHIQ1 12:4633Punt7–0
DALQ1 11:201783Touchdown14–0
PHIQ1 3:043-3Punt14–0
DALQ1 1:381066Touchdown21–0
PHIQ2 11:561184Touchdown21–7
DALQ2 8:32516Punt21–7
PHIQ2 4:461043Field goal21–10
DALQ2 1:48841Punt21–10
DALQ3 15:006-5Punt21–10
PHIQ3 11:34881Touchdown21–17
DALQ3 8:4844Turnover21–17
PHIQ3 6:46310Touchdown21–24
DALQ3 5:42878Touchdown28–24
PHIQ3 0:3933Turnover28–24
DALQ4 15:00442Touchdown35–24
PHIQ4 12:48540Field goal35–27
DALQ4 10:4539Punt35–27
PHIQ4 8:27321Turnover35–27
DALQ4 7:48613Field goal38–27
PHIQ4 4:374-5Punt38–27
DALQ4 3:0932Punt38–27
PHIQ4 2:02217Turnover38–27
DALQ4 1:5000End of half38–27

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo22/3126530

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray31812.62
Lance Dunbar5224.40
Joseph Randle2136.50
Tony Romo4-1-0.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez Bryant671143
Jason Witten79690
Cole Beasley44420
Terrance Williams24190
James Hanna11120
Lance Dunbar1260
DeMarco Murray1130
Dwayne Harris0100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez17/2825202

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy16644.00
Chris Polk263.02
Darren Sproles351.71

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Maclin46980
Brent Celek46520
Josh Huff12440
Zach Ertz34320
Riley Cooper24170
Darren Sproles2280
LeSean McCoy1210
Jordan Matthews0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +3.52.8%4.5%3.0%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%2.6%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

2.43%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.0%

Expected total

45.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.63
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.24
  • Expected margin-0.38