Closing spread
DEN -4
Total
49
Model margin
+0.5est.
SD perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chargers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 43.9 points. SD are 25-25-5 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 14/20 | 233 | 1 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Anderson | 29 | 85 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Jeremy Stewart | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Juwan Thompson | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 6 | 11 | 123 | 1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 3 | 3 | 53 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 1 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.4%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.49
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.