Closing spread
DEN -4
Total
49
Model margin
+0.5est.
SD perspective
Push chance
2.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Broncos
- OutCody LatimerWRRibs· DNP
- OutMontee BallRBGroin· DNP
- OutPaul CornickTToe· DNP
- DoubtfulQuinton CarterSKnee· DNP
- QuestionableJacob TammeTERibs· Limited
- QuestionableKayvon WebsterCBShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableRonnie HillmanRBFoot· Limited
- ProbableC.J. AndersonRBAnkle· Full
- ProbableDavid BrutonSGroin· Full
- ProbableDemaryius ThomasWRAnkle· Full
- ProbableJulius ThomasTEAnkle· Full
- ProbableJuwan ThompsonRBKnee· Full
- ProbableMalik JacksonDEKnee· Full
- ProbableQuanterus SmithDERibs· Full
- ProbableWes WelkerWRAnkle· Full
- ProbableWill MontgomeryCKnee· Full
Chargers
- OutMike ScifresPShoulder· DNP
- DoubtfulRyan CarrethersDTElbow· Limited
- QuestionableCorey LiugetDTAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableLadarius GreenTEConcussion· Limited
- QuestionableRyan MathewsRBAnkle· DNP
- ProbablePhilip RiversQBChest· Full
Win probability
- Chargers
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 33–23 since 1999
DEN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.8 points. SD are 25-26-5 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | DEN–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DEN | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 6 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LAC | Q1 11:40 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 0–0 |
| DEN | Q1 10:46 | 8 | 68 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| LAC | Q1 6:55 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 3–0 |
| DEN | Q1 5:27 | 12 | 55 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| LAC | Q2 14:21 | 13 | 77 | Missed field goal | 6–0 |
| DEN | Q2 6:58 | 10 | 63 | Field goal | 9–0 |
| LAC | Q2 1:50 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 9–0 |
| DEN | Q2 1:27 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 9–0 |
| LAC | Q2 0:50 | 3 | 5 | Field goal | 9–3 |
| DEN | Q2 0:10 | 1 | -1 | End of half | 9–3 |
| LAC | Q3 15:00 | 6 | 16 | Punt | 9–3 |
| DEN | Q3 11:24 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 9–3 |
| LAC | Q3 9:29 | 10 | 58 | Missed field goal | 9–3 |
| DEN | Q3 4:32 | 7 | 68 | Touchdown | 16–3 |
| LAC | Q3 0:31 | 12 | 70 | Touchdown | 16–10 |
| DEN | Q4 10:13 | 11 | 58 | Field goal | 19–10 |
| LAC | Q4 4:53 | 2 | 3 | Turnover | 19–10 |
| DEN | Q4 4:16 | 3 | 8 | Field goal | 22–10 |
| LAC | Q4 3:56 | 11 | 49 | Turnover | 22–10 |
| DEN | Q4 1:56 | 3 | -3 | End of half | 22–10 |
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 14/20 | 233 | 1 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 0/2 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Anderson | 29 | 85 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Jeremy Stewart | 1 | 16 | 16.0 | 0 |
| Juwan Thompson | 4 | 14 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 6 | 11 | 123 | 1 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 3 | 3 | 53 | 0 |
| Julius Thomas | 1 | 2 | 30 | 0 |
| Wes Welker | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
2.43%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
50.4%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+0.49
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.