2011 · Week 2

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

13·30

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -4.5

Total

46.5

Model margin

+6.7est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapSaints
  • -0.110EPA / play+0.198
  • 39.3%Success rate51.4%
  • -0.105EPA / dropback+0.305
  • -0.117EPA / rush+0.014
  • 9.6%Explosive rate10.8%
  • -2.53CPOE+7.27
  • 32.9%Third-down rate58.6%
  • 62.0%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
  • 1.37Points / drive2.96
  • 2.9%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 11–6 since 1999

Meetings average 43.2 points. NO are 9-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W7NO @ CHI14–26CHI
2023 · W9CHI @ NO17–24NO
2020 · playoffsCHI @ NO9–21NO
2020 · W8NO @ CHI26–23NO
2019 · W7NO @ CHI36–25NO
2017 · W8CHI @ NO12–20NO
2014 · W15NO @ CHI31–15NO
2013 · W5NO @ CHI26–18NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–NO
CHIQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
NOQ1 13:5939Punt0–0
CHIQ1 12:241386Touchdown7–0
NOQ1 6:551266Field goal7–3
CHIQ1 0:2337Punt7–3
NOQ2 14:03377Touchdown7–10
CHIQ2 12:3732Punt7–10
NOQ2 11:25841Field goal7–13
CHIQ2 5:5238Punt7–13
NOQ2 4:20536Field goal7–16
CHIQ2 2:09961Field goal10–16
NOQ3 15:0031Punt10–16
CHIQ3 14:00546Field goal13–16
NOQ3 12:1535Punt13–16
CHIQ3 10:502-8Turnover13–16
NOQ3 10:02529Touchdown13–23
CHIQ3 7:33625Punt13–23
NOQ3 5:061597Touchdown13–30
CHIQ4 12:05626Punt13–30
NOQ4 9:3632Punt13–30
CHIQ4 8:113-8Punt13–30
NOQ4 6:463-1Punt13–30
CHIQ4 5:3567Turnover on downs13–30
NOQ4 4:1628Turnover13–30
CHIQ4 3:363-7Punt13–30
NOQ4 2:46412End of half13–30

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler19/4524410

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte10494.90
Jay Cutler11212.00
Kahlil Bell1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Matt Forte10141170
Johnny Knox26450
Dane Sanzenbacher37331
Devin Hester19170
Sam Hurd13130
Earl Bennett1190
Matt Spaeth0100
Kellen Davis0100
Kahlil Bell0100

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees26/3727030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram14513.60
Pierre Thomas9414.60
Darren Sproles4174.30
Robert Meachem177.00
Drew Brees122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Devery Henderson331031
Jimmy Graham67790
Darren Sproles810431
Pierre Thomas24140
Adrian Arrington12140
Robert Meachem44101
Lance Moore1460
David Thomas1310

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +4.53.1%6.0%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

1.96%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

66.6%

Expected total

45.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.94
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+6.67