Closing spread
NO -4.5
Total
46.5
Model margin
+6.7est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.110EPA / play+0.198
- 39.3%Success rate51.4%
- -0.105EPA / dropback+0.305
- -0.117EPA / rush+0.014
- 9.6%Explosive rate10.8%
- -2.53CPOE+7.27
- 32.9%Third-down rate58.6%
- 62.0%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
- 1.37Points / drive2.96
- 2.9%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 11–6 since 1999
Meetings average 43.2 points. NO are 9-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 19/45 | 244 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 10 | 49 | 4.9 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Kahlil Bell | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 10 | 14 | 117 | 0 |
| Johnny Knox | 2 | 6 | 45 | 0 |
| Dane Sanzenbacher | 3 | 7 | 33 | 1 |
| Devin Hester | 1 | 9 | 17 | 0 |
| Sam Hurd | 1 | 3 | 13 | 0 |
| Earl Bennett | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Matt Spaeth | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kellen Davis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Kahlil Bell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 26/37 | 270 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 14 | 51 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Pierre Thomas | 9 | 41 | 4.6 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devery Henderson | 3 | 3 | 103 | 1 |
| Jimmy Graham | 6 | 7 | 79 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 8 | 10 | 43 | 1 |
| Pierre Thomas | 2 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Adrian Arrington | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Robert Meachem | 4 | 4 | 10 | 1 |
| Lance Moore | 1 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| David Thomas | 1 | 3 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
1.96%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
66.6%
Expected total
45.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.94
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+6.67