Closing spread
KC -11
Total
41.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
KC perspective
Push chance
1.4%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutBrian LeonhardtTEConcussion· DNP
- OutDenarius MooreWRKnee· DNP
- OutLarry AsanteSShoulder· DNP
- OutMenelik WatsonTFoot· DNP
- QuestionablePat SimsDTShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableSio MooreLBHip· DNP
- QuestionableTarell BrownCBFoot· Limited
- ProbableAndre HolmesWRShoulder· Full
- ProbableChimdi ChekwaCBShoulder· Full
- ProbableNeiko ThorpeCBHand· Full
Chiefs
- OutAllen BaileyDEConcussion· DNP
- DoubtfulPhillip GainesCBConcussion· Limited
- QuestionableTamba HaliLBKnee· Limited
- ProbableAnthony FasanoTEKnee· Limited
- ProbableChristopher OwensCBKnee· Full
- ProbableDonnie AveryWRGroin· Full
- ProbableHusain AbdullahSFoot· Full
- ProbableJamaal CharlesRBKnee· Full
- ProbableJames-Michael JohnsonLBBack· Full
- ProbableJoe MaysLBKnee· Full
- ProbableJunior HemingwayWRConcussion· Full
- ProbableSean SmithCBGroin· Full
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 36–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.5 points. KC are 26-28-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | Q1 15:00 | 5 | 24 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 12:06 | 6 | 15 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 8:22 | 4 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 6:05 | 7 | 23 | Opp touchdown | 0–7 |
| LV | Q1 2:38 | 4 | 33 | Punt | 0–7 |
| KC | Q1 0:53 | 10 | 61 | Missed field goal | 0–7 |
| LV | Q2 11:55 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 0–7 |
| KC | Q2 10:47 | 6 | 60 | Field goal | 0–10 |
| LV | Q2 8:01 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 0–10 |
| KC | Q2 6:28 | 4 | 23 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LV | Q2 3:45 | 5 | 10 | Punt | 0–10 |
| KC | Q2 1:47 | 7 | 37 | Punt | 0–10 |
| LV | Q2 0:59 | 8 | 45 | Field goal | 3–10 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–10 |
| KC | Q3 14:07 | 2 | 7 | Turnover | 3–10 |
| LV | Q3 13:14 | 3 | 0 | Field goal | 6–10 |
| KC | Q3 11:44 | 10 | 60 | Touchdown | 6–17 |
| LV | Q3 6:46 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 6–17 |
| KC | Q3 6:35 | 2 | 21 | Touchdown | 6–24 |
| LV | Q3 5:50 | 5 | 18 | Punt | 6–24 |
| KC | Q3 3:34 | 3 | 70 | Touchdown | 6–31 |
| LV | Q3 2:04 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 6–31 |
| KC | Q3 0:19 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 6–31 |
| LV | Q4 13:31 | 3 | 2 | Punt | 6–31 |
| KC | Q4 12:03 | 4 | 2 | Punt | 6–31 |
| LV | Q4 10:42 | 13 | 56 | Turnover on downs | 6–31 |
| KC | Q4 6:47 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 6–31 |
| LV | Q4 5:37 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 6–31 |
| KC | Q4 3:54 | 3 | 3 | Missed field goal | 6–31 |
| LV | Q4 2:19 | 9 | 53 | Touchdown | 13–31 |
| KC | Q4 0:34 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 13–31 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 18/30 | 297 | 2 | 0 |
| Chase Daniel | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 12 | 52 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 9 | 11 | 1.2 | 1 |
| Chase Daniel | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knile Davis | 1 | 2 | 70 | 1 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 3 | 7 | 69 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 3 | 5 | 69 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 5 | 6 | 59 | 1 |
| Jason Avant | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Frankie Hammond | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.4%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.14
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.35
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.