Closing spread
KC -11
Total
41.5
Model margin
+2.4est.
KC perspective
Push chance
1.4%est.
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 35–19 since 1999
Meetings average 44.3 points. KC are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 18/30 | 297 | 2 | 0 |
| Chase Daniel | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 12 | 52 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 9 | 11 | 1.2 | 1 |
| Chase Daniel | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Knile Davis | 1 | 2 | 70 | 1 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 3 | 7 | 69 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 3 | 5 | 69 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 5 | 6 | 59 | 1 |
| Jason Avant | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Frankie Hammond | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Charcandrick West | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
1.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.4%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.14
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.35
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.