Closing spread
SEA -10
Total
38
Model margin
+6.3est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
3.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Seahawks
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.029EPA / play+0.091
- 42.6%Success rate44.0%
- +0.061EPA / dropback+0.141
- -0.167EPA / rush+0.030
- 9.9%Explosive rate11.7%
- -2.41CPOE+4.40
- 40.5%Third-down rate43.4%
- 54.0%Red-zone TD rate60.8%
- 1.44Points / drive2.06
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SEA are 29-21-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 11/19 | 141 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 6 | 55 | 9.2 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 9 | 46 | 5.1 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 11 | 29 | 2.6 | 1 |
| Alfonso Smith | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Celek | 1 | 1 | 31 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 2 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Michael Crabtree | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 1 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Asante Cleveland | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 12/24 | 168 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 21 | 91 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Robert Turbin | 5 | 33 | 6.6 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 5 | 27 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Christine Michael | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermaine Kearse | 5 | 6 | 78 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 3 | 6 | 53 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 3 | 5 | 30 | 1 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Tony Moeaki | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Christine Michael | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
3.35%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
65.8%
Expected total
43.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.86
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+6.35