2014 · Week 15 · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

7·17

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 46°F · wind 4mph

Closing spread

SEA -10

Total

38

Model margin

+6.3est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

3.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.029EPA / play+0.091
  • 42.6%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.061EPA / dropback+0.141
  • -0.167EPA / rush+0.030
  • 9.9%Explosive rate11.7%
  • -2.41CPOE+4.40
  • 40.5%Third-down rate43.4%
  • 54.0%Red-zone TD rate60.8%
  • 1.44Points / drive2.06
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. SEA are 29-22-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5SF @ SEA32–29SF
2025 · playoffsSF @ SEA6–41SEA
2025 · W18SEA @ SF13–3SEA
2025 · W1SF @ SEA17–13SF
2024 · W11SEA @ SF20–17SEA
2024 · W6SF @ SEA36–24SF
2023 · W14SEA @ SF16–28SF
2023 · W12SF @ SEA31–13SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–SEA
SFQ1 15:00745Punt0–0
SEAQ1 11:52614Punt0–0
SFQ1 8:1831Punt0–0
SEAQ1 6:42832Field goal0–3
SFQ1 3:401185Touchdown7–3
SEAQ2 13:22865Punt7–3
SFQ2 7:54947Punt7–3
SEAQ2 1:531162Turnover7–3
SEAQ3 15:00624Punt7–3
SFQ3 11:45714Punt7–3
SEAQ3 7:401060Touchdown7–10
SFQ3 2:193-8Punt7–10
SEAQ3 0:45736Touchdown7–17
SFQ4 13:201455Turnover on downs7–17
SEAQ4 5:304-14Punt7–17
SFQ4 4:0246Turnover on downs7–17
SEAQ4 2:32313End of half7–17

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick11/1914100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde6559.20
Colin Kaepernick9465.10
Frank Gore11292.61
Alfonso Smith461.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Garrett Celek11310
Anquan Boldin24230
Michael Crabtree33190
Brandon Lloyd12120
Vernon Davis0200
Asante Cleveland0100

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson12/2416811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch21914.31
Robert Turbin5336.60
Russell Wilson5275.40
Christine Michael111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jermaine Kearse56780
Doug Baldwin36530
Paul Richardson35301
Marshawn Lynch1270
Tony Moeaki0200
Luke Willson0100
Christine Michael0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +106.1%7.3%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.2%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

3.35%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

65.8%

Expected total

43.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.86
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+6.35