2014 · Week 15 · Division

Final

Commanders

Washington

QB Colt McCoy

13·24

Giants

New York

QB Eli Manning

MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 43°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

NYG -7

Total

46.5

Model margin

+2.2est.

NYG perspective

Push chance

4.7%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Commanders

Giants

Win probability

  • Giants
  • Commanders

How each play moved the game.

Giants winsCommanders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Commandersedge mapGiants
  • -0.052EPA / play-0.014
  • 41.7%Success rate41.2%
  • -0.031EPA / dropback+0.072
  • -0.089EPA / rush-0.147
  • 9.8%Explosive rate7.7%
  • +1.13CPOE+0.79
  • 31.3%Third-down rate43.5%
  • 55.9%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
  • 1.39Points / drive1.78
  • 2.9%Turnover rate2.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NYG lead 32–21–2 since 1999

Meetings average 40.1 points. NYG are 29-24-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5NYG @ WAS27–27Tie
2025 · W15WAS @ NYG29–21WAS
2025 · W1NYG @ WAS6–21WAS
2024 · W9WAS @ NYG27–22WAS
2024 · W2NYG @ WAS18–21WAS
2023 · W11NYG @ WAS31–19NYG
2023 · W7WAS @ NYG7–14NYG
2022 · W15NYG @ WAS20–12NYG

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultWAS–NYG
NYGQ1 15:00411Punt0–0
WASQ1 12:581279Field goal3–0
NYGQ1 6:471256Touchdown3–7
WASQ1 1:40511Punt3–7
NYGQ2 13:3230Punt3–7
WASQ2 12:26875Touchdown10–7
NYGQ2 8:19419Punt10–7
WASQ2 6:30513Punt10–7
NYGQ2 4:4239Punt10–7
WASQ2 2:551287Turnover10–7
WASQ3 15:0000Field goal10–7
NYGQ3 14:5838Field goal10–10
WASQ3 13:18632Turnover on downs10–10
NYGQ3 9:374-2Punt10–10
WASQ3 7:34764Field goal13–10
NYGQ3 3:27558Touchdown13–17
WASQ3 1:2235Punt13–17
NYGQ4 14:47736Turnover on downs13–17
WASQ4 11:2437Punt13–17
NYGQ4 10:001386Touchdown13–24
WASQ4 4:413-19Punt13–24
NYGQ4 3:3436Punt13–24
WASQ4 2:28515Punt13–24
WASQ4 0:0913End of half13–24

Box score

Individual performances

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Robert Griffin III18/2723610
Colt McCoy4/73900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris14493.50
Robert Griffin III5469.20
Colt McCoy22412.00
Chris Thompson3124.00
DeSean Jackson199.00
Silas Redd111.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Andre Roberts24810
Silas Redd33620
Pierre Garcon47360
Chris Thompson34221
Santana Moss11180
Niles Paul11170
DeSean Jackson38150
Jordan Reed34130
Logan Paulsen1190

Giants

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Eli Manning23/3425030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Andre Williams18442.40
Rashad Jennings133.00
Odell Beckham Jr.100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Odell Beckham Jr.12151433
Rueben Randle24300
Kevin Ogletree33250
Daniel Fells11160
Preston Parker14120
Larry Donnell22110
Andre Williams1490
Corey Washington1140

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.

Half-point at risk

4.70%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

54.9%

Expected total

44.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.70
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-3.03
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.16