2014 · Week 15 · Division
Final
MetLife Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 43°F · wind 9mph
Closing spread
NYG -7
Total
46.5
Model margin
+2.2est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
4.7%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Giants
- Commanders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.052EPA / play-0.014
- 41.7%Success rate41.2%
- -0.031EPA / dropback+0.072
- -0.089EPA / rush-0.147
- 9.8%Explosive rate7.7%
- +1.13CPOE+0.79
- 31.3%Third-down rate43.5%
- 55.9%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 1.39Points / drive1.78
- 2.9%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NYG lead 32–21–1 since 1999
WAS have won 4 straight. Meetings average 39.8 points. NYG are 28-24-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 18/27 | 236 | 1 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 4/7 | 39 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 14 | 49 | 3.5 | 0 |
| Robert Griffin III | 5 | 46 | 9.2 | 0 |
| Colt McCoy | 2 | 24 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Silas Redd | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Roberts | 2 | 4 | 81 | 0 |
| Silas Redd | 3 | 3 | 62 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 4 | 7 | 36 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 3 | 4 | 22 | 1 |
| Santana Moss | 1 | 1 | 18 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 3 | 8 | 15 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 23/34 | 250 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Williams | 18 | 44 | 2.4 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 12 | 15 | 143 | 3 |
| Rueben Randle | 2 | 4 | 30 | 0 |
| Kevin Ogletree | 3 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Daniel Fells | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Preston Parker | 1 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Larry Donnell | 2 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Andre Williams | 1 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Corey Washington | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Commanders.
Half-point at risk
4.70%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.9%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.70
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-3.03
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.16