Closing spread
DEN -5
Total
47.5
Model margin
+0.9est.
CIN perspective
Push chance
1.8%est.
Win probability
- Bengals
- Broncos
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.113EPA / play-0.002
- 48.0%Success rate41.6%
- +0.271EPA / dropback+0.019
- -0.106EPA / rush-0.034
- 9.9%Explosive rate6.6%
- +7.00CPOE+1.17
- 46.0%Third-down rate34.3%
- 64.3%Red-zone TD rate55.7%
- 2.26Points / drive1.71
- 2.1%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DEN lead 9–6 since 1999
Meetings average 41.3 points. CIN are 9-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 27/35 | 291 | 3 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Willis McGahee | 23 | 66 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 2 | -2 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Decker | 8 | 11 | 99 | 2 |
| Demaryius Thomas | 6 | 8 | 77 | 0 |
| Brandon Stokley | 3 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Joel Dreessen | 4 | 4 | 38 | 1 |
| Jacob Tamme | 3 | 4 | 18 | 0 |
| Lance Ball | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 |
| Willis McGahee | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Matt Willis | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 26/42 | 299 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 17 | 56 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Andy Dalton | 2 | 16 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 4 | 15 | 3.8 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 1 | -2 | -2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermaine Gresham | 6 | 8 | 108 | 0 |
| A.J. Green | 7 | 9 | 99 | 1 |
| Andrew Hawkins | 4 | 7 | 32 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 1 | 6 | 17 | 0 |
| Brian Leonard | 3 | 4 | 13 | 0 |
| Orson Charles | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| BenJarvus Green-Ellis | 2 | 3 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Bengals; negative favour Broncos.
Half-point at risk
1.81%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
51.5%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.14
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+0.91