2014 · Week 16

Final

Chiefs

Kansas City

QB Alex Smith

12·20

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 36°F · wind 1mph

Closing spread

PIT -2.5

Total

49.5

Model margin

+4.3est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Chiefs

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Chiefs

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsChiefs wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Chiefsedge mapSteelers
  • +0.026EPA / play+0.118
  • 42.6%Success rate48.4%
  • +0.093EPA / dropback+0.239
  • -0.081EPA / rush-0.084
  • 8.2%Explosive rate9.0%
  • -1.58CPOE+5.59
  • 40.0%Third-down rate45.6%
  • 64.7%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
  • 1.99Points / drive2.26
  • 1.6%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

All square 8–8 since 1999

KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. PIT are 6-10 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W17KC @ PIT29–10KC
2021 · playoffsPIT @ KC21–42KC
2021 · W16PIT @ KC10–36KC
2018 · W2KC @ PIT42–37KC
2017 · W6PIT @ KC19–13PIT
2016 · playoffsPIT @ KC18–16PIT
2016 · W4KC @ PIT14–43PIT
2015 · W7PIT @ KC13–23KC

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultKC–PIT
PITQ1 15:001080Field goal0–3
KCQ1 9:151365Field goal3–3
PITQ1 2:0631Punt3–3
KCQ1 0:351244Field goal6–3
PITQ2 9:251280Touchdown6–10
KCQ2 4:18972Turnover on downs6–10
PITQ2 0:2000End of half6–10
KCQ3 15:00515Punt6–10
PITQ3 12:0439Punt6–10
KCQ3 9:37748Turnover6–10
PITQ3 6:261070Touchdown6–17
KCQ3 0:341138Field goal9–17
PITQ4 10:181246Field goal9–20
KCQ4 4:041045Field goal12–20
PITQ4 1:3700End of half12–20

Box score

Individual performances

Chiefs

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Alex Smith31/4531100

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jamaal Charles9293.20
Alex Smith2147.00
Knile Davis221.00
De'Anthony Thomas1-6-6.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Albert Wilson57870
Dwayne Bowe68570
Jamaal Charles57480
De'Anthony Thomas67470
Jason Avant46370
Travis Kelce47310
Knile Davis1190
Anthony Fasano1210
Frankie Hammond0100

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger18/2522010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Le'Veon Bell20633.11
Martavis Bryant294.50
Ben Roethlisberger4-4-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Antonio Brown79721
Heath Miller78680
Martavis Bryant12440
Markus Wheaton23270
Le'Veon Bell1290
Michael Palmer0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +2.53.6%6.6%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Chiefs.

Half-point at risk

7.49%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.6%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.85
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.34