Closing spread
PIT -2.5
Total
49.5
Model margin
+4.3est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Steelers
- Chiefs
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.026EPA / play+0.118
- 42.6%Success rate48.4%
- +0.093EPA / dropback+0.239
- -0.081EPA / rush-0.084
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.0%
- -1.58CPOE+5.59
- 40.0%Third-down rate45.6%
- 64.7%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
- 1.99Points / drive2.26
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
All square 8–8 since 1999
KC have won 4 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. PIT are 6-10 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Smith | 31/45 | 311 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 9 | 29 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Alex Smith | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | -6 | -6.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Albert Wilson | 5 | 7 | 87 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 6 | 8 | 57 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 5 | 7 | 48 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 6 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 4 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Travis Kelce | 4 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Anthony Fasano | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Frankie Hammond | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 18/25 | 220 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 20 | 63 | 3.1 | 1 |
| Martavis Bryant | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 4 | -4 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 7 | 9 | 72 | 1 |
| Heath Miller | 7 | 8 | 68 | 0 |
| Martavis Bryant | 1 | 2 | 44 | 0 |
| Markus Wheaton | 2 | 3 | 27 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Michael Palmer | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Chiefs.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.6%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.85
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.34