2014 · Week 16 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 37°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
PHI -7
Total
51
Model margin
-0.1est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
4.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.005EPA / play-0.052
- 43.7%Success rate41.7%
- +0.063EPA / dropback-0.031
- -0.113EPA / rush-0.089
- 9.9%Explosive rate9.8%
- -0.76CPOE+1.13
- 44.2%Third-down rate31.3%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
- 1.88Points / drive1.39
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. WAS are 26-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 37/50 | 374 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 22 | 88 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 4 | 24 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Mark Sanchez | 5 | 22 | 4.4 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Ertz | 15 | 18 | 115 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 4 | 6 | 62 | 0 |
| Jordan Matthews | 3 | 5 | 58 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 5 | 7 | 53 | 2 |
| Darren Sproles | 6 | 9 | 43 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 3 | 4 | 28 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 16/23 | 220 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 21 | 83 | 4.0 | 1 |
| Robert Griffin III | 5 | 11 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Silas Redd | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 4 | 6 | 126 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 4 | 5 | 61 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
4.42%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
48.8%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.58
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.09