2014 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Mark Sanchez

24·27

Commanders

Washington

QB Robert Griffin

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 37°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

PHI -7

Total

51

Model margin

-0.1est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

4.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCommanders
  • -0.005EPA / play-0.052
  • 43.7%Success rate41.7%
  • +0.063EPA / dropback-0.031
  • -0.113EPA / rush-0.089
  • 9.9%Explosive rate9.8%
  • -0.76CPOE+1.13
  • 44.2%Third-down rate31.3%
  • 57.8%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
  • 1.88Points / drive1.39
  • 3.0%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 35–22 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. WAS are 27-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8PHI @ WAS10–27WAS
2026 · W1WAS @ PHI22–24PHI
2025 · W18WAS @ PHI24–17WAS
2025 · W16PHI @ WAS29–18PHI
2024 · playoffsWAS @ PHI23–55PHI
2024 · W16PHI @ WAS33–36WAS
2024 · W11WAS @ PHI18–26PHI
2023 · W8PHI @ WAS38–31PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–WAS
PHIQ1 15:00928Turnover0–0
WASQ1 11:421133Field goal0–3
PHIQ1 6:041174Touchdown7–3
WASQ1 1:49380Touchdown7–10
PHIQ1 0:1934Punt7–10
WASQ2 14:19612Punt7–10
PHIQ2 10:4317113Touchdown14–10
WASQ2 3:3937Punt14–10
PHIQ2 1:51942Punt14–10
WASQ2 0:0900End of half14–10
WASQ3 15:0000Missed field goal14–10
PHIQ3 14:5230Missed field goal14–10
WASQ3 13:341371Touchdown14–17
PHIQ3 6:46952Missed field goal14–17
WASQ3 2:22558Touchdown14–24
PHIQ3 0:261395Touchdown21–24
WASQ4 10:2730Turnover21–24
PHIQ4 9:11850Field goal24–24
WASQ4 6:17610Punt24–24
PHIQ4 2:36737Turnover24–24
WASQ4 1:31635Field goal24–27
PHIQ4 0:0510End of half24–27

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mark Sanchez37/5037421

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy22884.01
Darren Sproles4246.00
Mark Sanchez5224.40

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Zach Ertz15181150
Jeremy Maclin46620
Jordan Matthews35580
Riley Cooper57532
Darren Sproles69430
LeSean McCoy34280
Brent Celek11150

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Robert Griffin III16/2322001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris21834.01
Robert Griffin III5112.20
Silas Redd144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson461260
Pierre Garcon45610
Andre Roberts12140
Logan Paulsen1160
Chris Thompson3350
Jordan Reed2450
Santana Moss0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -72.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.3%2.9%4.4%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

4.42%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

48.8%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.58
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-0.09