2014 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

35·6

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Ryan Lindley

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

SEA -9.5

Total

36.5

Model margin

-3.6est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge mapCardinals
  • +0.091EPA / play-0.024
  • 44.0%Success rate39.1%
  • +0.141EPA / dropback+0.056
  • +0.030EPA / rush-0.165
  • 11.7%Explosive rate8.2%
  • +4.40CPOE-4.59
  • 43.4%Third-down rate40.7%
  • 60.8%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
  • 2.06Points / drive1.54
  • 1.2%Turnover rate1.6%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–17–1 since 1999

SEA have won 10 straight. Meetings average 43.4 points. ARI are 21-27-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2SEA @ ARI31–7SEA
2025 · W10ARI @ SEA22–44SEA
2025 · W4SEA @ ARI23–20SEA
2024 · W14SEA @ ARI30–18SEA
2024 · W12ARI @ SEA6–16SEA
2023 · W18SEA @ ARI21–20SEA
2023 · W7ARI @ SEA10–20SEA
2022 · W9SEA @ ARI31–21SEA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–ARI
SEAQ1 15:00836Punt0–0
ARIQ1 9:59611Punt0–0
SEAQ1 7:451043Punt0–0
ARIQ1 2:2854Punt0–0
SEAQ1 0:44561Missed field goal0–0
ARIQ2 14:101144Field goal0–3
SEAQ2 7:55280Touchdown7–3
ARIQ2 7:0330Punt7–3
SEAQ2 6:29639Touchdown14–3
ARIQ2 3:4165Punt14–3
SEAQ2 1:43659End of half14–3
ARIQ3 15:003-3Punt14–3
SEAQ3 13:58421Missed field goal14–3
ARIQ3 11:3639Punt14–3
SEAQ3 9:5936Punt14–3
ARIQ3 8:1632Punt14–3
SEAQ3 7:21451Missed field goal14–3
ARIQ3 5:29849Field goal14–6
SEAQ3 0:59779Touchdown21–6
ARIQ4 11:59517Punt21–6
SEAQ4 10:30179Touchdown28–6
ARIQ4 10:14447Turnover28–6
SEAQ4 8:51740Touchdown35–6
ARIQ4 4:4054Punt35–6
SEAQ4 2:5932Punt35–6
ARIQ4 1:35727End of half35–6

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson20/3133920
Tarvaris Jackson1/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch1011311.32
Russell Wilson68814.71
Robert Turbin10383.80
Christine Michael8283.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Luke Willson331392
Doug Baldwin7111130
Paul Richardson57520
Bryan Walters11130
Cooper Helfet2490
Jermaine Kearse1180
Ricardo Lockette2250

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Lindley18/4421601
Logan Thomas0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Stepfan Taylor11191.70
Marion Grice166.00
Kerwynn Williams242.00
Robert Hughes100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
John Brown38540
Michael Floyd28410
Larry Fitzgerald412330
Darren Fells22260
Stepfan Taylor23250
John Carlson23150
Rob Housler11130
Jaron Brown1260
Marion Grice1430
Ted Ginn0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -9.52.8%3.1%4.8%3.2%7.5%6.7%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

1.25%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

39.4%

Expected total

43.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.08
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-2.30
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin-3.65