Closing spread
SEA -9.5
Total
36.5
Model margin
-3.6est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.091EPA / play-0.024
- 44.0%Success rate39.1%
- +0.141EPA / dropback+0.056
- +0.030EPA / rush-0.165
- 11.7%Explosive rate8.2%
- +4.40CPOE-4.59
- 43.4%Third-down rate40.7%
- 60.8%Red-zone TD rate51.8%
- 2.06Points / drive1.54
- 1.2%Turnover rate1.6%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 30–17–1 since 1999
SEA have won 9 straight. Meetings average 43.5 points. ARI are 21-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 20/31 | 339 | 2 | 0 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 1/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 10 | 113 | 11.3 | 2 |
| Russell Wilson | 6 | 88 | 14.7 | 1 |
| Robert Turbin | 10 | 38 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Christine Michael | 8 | 28 | 3.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Willson | 3 | 3 | 139 | 2 |
| Doug Baldwin | 7 | 11 | 113 | 0 |
| Paul Richardson | 5 | 7 | 52 | 0 |
| Bryan Walters | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Cooper Helfet | 2 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Ricardo Lockette | 2 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Lindley | 18/44 | 216 | 0 | 1 |
| Logan Thomas | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stepfan Taylor | 11 | 19 | 1.7 | 0 |
| Marion Grice | 1 | 6 | 6.0 | 0 |
| Kerwynn Williams | 2 | 4 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Robert Hughes | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Brown | 3 | 8 | 54 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 2 | 8 | 41 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 4 | 12 | 33 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 2 | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 2 | 3 | 15 | 0 |
| Rob Housler | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Marion Grice | 1 | 4 | 3 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
1.25%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
39.4%
Expected total
43.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.08
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.30
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin-3.65