Closing spread
JAX -4
Total
39
Model margin
+3.3est.
JAX perspective
Push chance
2.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Jaguars
- Titans
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.122EPA / play-0.161
- 39.5%Success rate37.6%
- -0.086EPA / dropback-0.184
- -0.190EPA / rush-0.114
- 8.4%Explosive rate7.9%
- -2.82CPOE-7.00
- 29.7%Third-down rate32.0%
- 50.7%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 1.18Points / drive0.97
- 2.5%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
TEN lead 32–23 since 1999
JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Titans
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlie Whitehurst | 24/35 | 287 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bishop Sankey | 14 | 44 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Shonn Greene | 7 | 28 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Charlie Whitehurst | 3 | 12 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 4 | 11 | 2.8 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kendall Wright | 4 | 5 | 73 | 0 |
| Leon Washington | 7 | 7 | 62 | 1 |
| Delanie Walker | 4 | 6 | 54 | 0 |
| Derek Hagan | 3 | 7 | 47 | 0 |
| Nate Washington | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Chase Coffman | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Kris Durham | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Bishop Sankey | 1 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
Jaguars
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Blake Bortles | 13/26 | 115 | 1 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 1/1 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Todman | 5 | 71 | 14.2 | 1 |
| Toby Gerhart | 12 | 53 | 4.4 | 1 |
| Blake Bortles | 5 | 50 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Storm Johnson | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marqise Lee | 4 | 6 | 65 | 0 |
| Allen Hurns | 3 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Cecil Shorts | 2 | 7 | 15 | 0 |
| Toby Gerhart | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Marcedes Lewis | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 |
| Jordan Todman | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.
Half-point at risk
2.55%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
57.8%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.77
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+3.26