2014 · Week 16 · Division

Final

Titans

Tennessee

QB Charlie Whitehurst

13·21

Jaguars

Jacksonville

QB Blake Bortles

EverBank Field · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 2mph

Closing spread

JAX -4

Total

39

Model margin

+3.3est.

JAX perspective

Push chance

2.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Titans

Jaguars

Win probability

  • Jaguars
  • Titans

How each play moved the game.

Jaguars winsTitans wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Titansedge mapJaguars
  • -0.122EPA / play-0.161
  • 39.5%Success rate37.6%
  • -0.086EPA / dropback-0.184
  • -0.190EPA / rush-0.114
  • 8.4%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -2.82CPOE-7.00
  • 29.7%Third-down rate32.0%
  • 50.7%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
  • 1.18Points / drive0.97
  • 2.5%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

TEN lead 32–23 since 1999

JAX have won 4 straight. Meetings average 40.4 points. JAX are 25-28-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W18TEN @ JAX7–41JAX
2025 · W13JAX @ TEN25–3JAX
2024 · W17TEN @ JAX13–20JAX
2024 · W14JAX @ TEN10–6JAX
2023 · W18JAX @ TEN20–28TEN
2023 · W11TEN @ JAX14–34JAX
2022 · W18TEN @ JAX16–20JAX
2022 · W14JAX @ TEN36–22JAX

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTEN–JAX
TENQ1 15:001289Touchdown7–0
JAXQ1 7:23510Punt7–0
TENQ1 5:0037Punt7–0
JAXQ1 4:0034Punt7–0
TENQ1 2:4049Punt7–0
JAXQ2 14:1532Punt7–0
TENQ2 12:50636Punt7–0
JAXQ2 9:2730Punt7–0
TENQ2 7:58738Field goal10–0
JAXQ2 3:461275Touchdown10–7
TENQ2 0:3110End of half10–7
JAXQ3 15:001286Touchdown10–14
TENQ3 9:27835Punt10–14
JAXQ3 4:21619Punt10–14
TENQ3 1:17514Punt10–14
JAXQ4 14:053-6Punt10–14
TENQ4 12:36619Turnover on downs10–20
JAXQ4 9:24162Touchdown10–21
TENQ4 9:13775Field goal13–21
JAXQ4 6:061136Punt13–21
TENQ4 1:07636End of half13–21

Box score

Individual performances

Titans

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Charlie Whitehurst24/3528710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Bishop Sankey14443.10
Shonn Greene7284.00
Charlie Whitehurst3124.00
Leon Washington4112.80

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kendall Wright45730
Leon Washington77621
Delanie Walker46540
Derek Hagan37470
Nate Washington23180
Chase Coffman11140
Kris Durham23100
Bishop Sankey1290

Jaguars

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Blake Bortles13/2611510
Cecil Shorts1/1900

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jordan Todman57114.21
Toby Gerhart12534.41
Blake Bortles55010.00
Storm Johnson331.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marqise Lee46650
Allen Hurns36260
Cecil Shorts27150
Toby Gerhart1270
Marcedes Lewis2361
Jordan Todman2350

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +43.8%6.8%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.8%

Positive margins favour Jaguars; negative favour Titans.

Half-point at risk

2.55%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

57.8%

Expected total

41.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.77
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+3.26