2014 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Ryan Lindley

17·20

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 51°F · wind 3mph

Closing spread

SF -6

Total

38

Model margin

+5.1est.

SF perspective

Push chance

3.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cardinals

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Cardinals

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsCardinals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cardinalsedge map49ers
  • -0.024EPA / play-0.029
  • 39.1%Success rate42.6%
  • +0.056EPA / dropback+0.061
  • -0.165EPA / rush-0.167
  • 8.2%Explosive rate9.9%
  • -4.59CPOE-2.41
  • 40.7%Third-down rate40.5%
  • 51.8%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
  • 1.54Points / drive1.44
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 29–22 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. SF are 26-24-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3ARI @ SF30–36SF
2025 · W11SF @ ARI41–22SF
2025 · W3ARI @ SF15–16SF
2024 · W18SF @ ARI24–47ARI
2024 · W5ARI @ SF24–23ARI
2023 · W15SF @ ARI45–29SF
2023 · W4ARI @ SF16–35SF
2022 · W18ARI @ SF13–38SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultARI–SF
ARIQ1 15:00880Touchdown7–0
SFQ1 10:55378Touchdown7–7
ARIQ1 9:241241Punt7–7
SFQ1 3:281265Field goal7–10
ARIQ2 12:33848Turnover7–10
SFQ2 9:04756Field goal7–13
ARIQ2 6:041172Field goal10–13
SFQ2 1:35412Punt10–13
ARIQ2 0:58475Touchdown17–13
SFQ2 0:3612End of half17–13
SFQ3 15:00518Punt17–13
ARIQ3 11:571035Turnover17–13
SFQ3 6:081292Touchdown17–20
ARIQ3 0:251136Punt17–20
SFQ4 10:47625Punt17–20
ARIQ4 6:58419Punt17–20
SFQ4 5:401050Punt17–20
ARIQ4 2:002-9Turnover17–20
SFQ4 1:3000End of half17–20

Box score

Individual performances

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Lindley23/3931623
Marion Grice0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Kerwynn Williams17673.90
Stepfan Taylor7263.70
Robert Hughes155.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Michael Floyd8121532
John Brown49510
Darren Fells23390
Larry Fitzgerald24290
Rob Housler12200
Robert Hughes13100
Ted Ginn1160
John Carlson1160
Marion Grice3320
Kerwynn Williams0100
Stepfan Taylor0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick15/2620420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Frank Gore251445.80
Colin Kaepernick7639.00
Alfonso Smith1-1-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Anquan Boldin29811
Michael Crabtree44410
Quinton Patton11350
Brandon Lloyd11140
Vernon Davis1190
Frank Gore2350
Alfonso Smith1220

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +63.5%6.4%7.4%3.2%4.9%3.3%3.0%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.

Half-point at risk

3.19%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

62.6%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.22
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+2.30
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin+5.08