Closing spread
SF -6
Total
38
Model margin
+5.1est.
SF perspective
Push chance
3.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- 49ers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.024EPA / play-0.029
- 39.1%Success rate42.6%
- +0.056EPA / dropback+0.061
- -0.165EPA / rush-0.167
- 8.2%Explosive rate9.9%
- -4.59CPOE-2.41
- 40.7%Third-down rate40.5%
- 51.8%Red-zone TD rate54.0%
- 1.54Points / drive1.44
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.0%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. SF are 26-23-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Lindley | 23/39 | 316 | 2 | 3 |
| Marion Grice | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerwynn Williams | 17 | 67 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Robert Hughes | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Floyd | 8 | 12 | 153 | 2 |
| John Brown | 4 | 9 | 51 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 2 | 3 | 39 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 2 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Rob Housler | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Robert Hughes | 1 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Marion Grice | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Kerwynn Williams | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 15/26 | 204 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 25 | 144 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 7 | 63 | 9.0 | 0 |
| Alfonso Smith | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Anquan Boldin | 2 | 9 | 81 | 1 |
| Michael Crabtree | 4 | 4 | 41 | 0 |
| Quinton Patton | 1 | 1 | 35 | 0 |
| Brandon Lloyd | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Frank Gore | 2 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Alfonso Smith | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
3.19%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
62.6%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.22
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+2.30
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+5.08