Closing spread
MIN -7
Total
47
Model margin
+4.6est.
MIN perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Vikings
- Bears
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.055EPA / play-0.034
- 44.2%Success rate42.2%
- -0.032EPA / dropback-0.018
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.061
- 7.1%Explosive rate7.6%
- -0.14CPOE-2.18
- 38.4%Third-down rate39.7%
- 67.3%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
- 1.62Points / drive1.59
- 2.8%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 28–26 since 1999
Meetings average 41.8 points. MIN are 23-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bears
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jay Cutler | 23/36 | 172 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Forte | 17 | 51 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Jay Cutler | 3 | 39 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 1 | 9 | 9.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martellus Bennett | 8 | 11 | 59 | 0 |
| Alshon Jeffery | 2 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Dante Rosario | 2 | 3 | 25 | 0 |
| Matt Forte | 8 | 12 | 23 | 0 |
| Marquess Wilson | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Josh Morgan | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Teddy Bridgewater | 17/25 | 209 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Asiata | 19 | 91 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Joe Banyard | 6 | 20 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Teddy Bridgewater | 6 | 18 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Charles D. Johnson | 1 | -11 | -11.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Thielen | 3 | 3 | 68 | 1 |
| Greg Jennings | 3 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Jarius Wright | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Rhett Ellison | 3 | 3 | 23 | 0 |
| Charles D. Johnson | 2 | 4 | 22 | 0 |
| Matt Asiata | 2 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Joe Banyard | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Cordarrelle Patterson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.
Half-point at risk
4.92%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.4%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.15
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.64