2014 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Bears

Chicago

QB Jay Cutler

9·13

Vikings

Minnesota

QB Teddy Bridgewater

TCF Bank Stadium · outdoors · fieldturf · 15°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

MIN -7

Total

47

Model margin

+4.6est.

MIN perspective

Push chance

4.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bears

Vikings

Win probability

  • Vikings
  • Bears

How each play moved the game.

Vikings winsBears wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bearsedge mapVikings
  • -0.055EPA / play-0.034
  • 44.2%Success rate42.2%
  • -0.032EPA / dropback-0.018
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.061
  • 7.1%Explosive rate7.6%
  • -0.14CPOE-2.18
  • 38.4%Third-down rate39.7%
  • 67.3%Red-zone TD rate56.2%
  • 1.62Points / drive1.59
  • 2.8%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIN lead 29–26 since 1999

Meetings average 41.3 points. MIN are 24-30-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2MIN @ CHI9–3MIN
2025 · W11CHI @ MIN19–17CHI
2025 · W1MIN @ CHI27–24MIN
2024 · W15CHI @ MIN12–30MIN
2024 · W12MIN @ CHI30–27MIN
2023 · W12CHI @ MIN12–10CHI
2023 · W6MIN @ CHI19–13MIN
2022 · W18MIN @ CHI29–13MIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCHI–MIN
CHIQ1 15:00624Punt0–0
MINQ1 10:241376Field goal0–3
CHIQ1 4:59936Punt0–3
MINQ2 15:0067Punt0–3
CHIQ2 11:34923Punt0–3
MINQ2 5:16314Punt0–3
CHIQ2 3:48842Field goal3–3
MINQ2 0:55421End of half3–3
MINQ3 15:0020Turnover3–3
CHIQ3 14:4532Field goal6–3
MINQ3 13:05680Touchdown6–10
CHIQ3 10:53757Missed field goal6–10
MINQ3 6:06827Punt6–10
CHIQ3 1:24516Punt6–10
MINQ4 13:58427Field goal6–13
CHIQ4 11:29818Field goal9–13
MINQ4 8:531365Turnover on downs9–13
CHIQ4 2:53646Turnover on downs9–13
MINQ4 1:3500End of half9–13

Box score

Individual performances

Bears

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jay Cutler23/3617200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Forte17513.00
Jay Cutler33913.00
Josh Morgan199.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Martellus Bennett811590
Alshon Jeffery25340
Dante Rosario23250
Matt Forte812230
Marquess Wilson23180
Josh Morgan12130

Vikings

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Teddy Bridgewater17/2520911

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Matt Asiata19914.80
Joe Banyard6203.30
Teddy Bridgewater6183.00
Charles D. Johnson1-11-11.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Adam Thielen33681
Greg Jennings35450
Jarius Wright33230
Rhett Ellison33230
Charles D. Johnson24220
Matt Asiata24170
Joe Banyard12110
Cordarrelle Patterson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.6%6.5%7.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Vikings; negative favour Bears.

Half-point at risk

4.92%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.4%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.15
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+4.64