Closing spread
PIT -3
Total
48
Model margin
+4.5est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Steelers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.019EPA / play+0.118
- 42.0%Success rate48.4%
- -0.017EPA / dropback+0.239
- -0.020EPA / rush-0.084
- 8.5%Explosive rate9.0%
- +0.60CPOE+5.59
- 39.7%Third-down rate45.6%
- 53.0%Red-zone TD rate57.4%
- 1.86Points / drive2.26
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. PIT are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 27/38 | 244 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Hill | 23 | 100 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 3 | 8 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 8 | 13 | 82 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 7 | 8 | 56 | 1 |
| Ryan Hewitt | 3 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Brandon Tate | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 3 | 3 | 20 | 1 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Dane Sanzenbacher | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 24/38 | 317 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Le'Veon Bell | 8 | 20 | 2.5 | 0 |
| Josh Harris | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 4 | 3 | 0.8 | 0 |
| Dri Archer | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | 7 | 13 | 128 | 1 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 6 | 6 | 80 | 0 |
| Heath Miller | 3 | 7 | 41 | 0 |
| Martavis Bryant | 1 | 2 | 21 | 1 |
| Dri Archer | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
| Markus Wheaton | 3 | 4 | 17 | 0 |
| Will Johnson | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Matt Spaeth | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
7.49%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.9%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.88
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin+4.45