2014 · Week 17 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 0mph
Closing spread
DAL -6
Total
47.5
Model margin
-2.6est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
3.1%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.117EPA / play-0.052
- 46.6%Success rate41.7%
- +0.286EPA / dropback-0.031
- -0.068EPA / rush-0.089
- 10.8%Explosive rate9.8%
- +5.68CPOE+1.13
- 47.6%Third-down rate31.3%
- 70.8%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
- 2.36Points / drive1.39
- 2.2%Turnover rate2.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
DAL lead 38–16 since 1999
DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. WAS are 23-31 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 22/34 | 299 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 20 | 100 | 5.0 | 1 |
| Joseph Randle | 4 | 69 | 17.3 | 1 |
| Lance Dunbar | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Dwayne Harris | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dez Bryant | 4 | 6 | 99 | 2 |
| Terrance Williams | 3 | 5 | 68 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 6 | 9 | 57 | 0 |
| Jason Witten | 4 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 3 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| Joseph Randle | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 |
| James Hanna | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Gavin Escobar | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Griffin III | 27/41 | 336 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 12 | 43 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 6 | 42 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Robert Griffin III | 6 | 19 | 3.2 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | 3 | 86 | 1 |
| Jordan Reed | 9 | 10 | 70 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 2 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Roy Helu | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Santana Moss | 3 | 5 | 25 | 0 |
| Niles Paul | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Andre Roberts | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Ryan Grant | 1 | 2 | 7 | 0 |
| Logan Paulsen | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
3.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
42.0%
Expected total
45.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.21
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.08
- Expected margin-2.64