2014 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

44·17

Commanders

Washington

QB Robert Griffin

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

DAL -6

Total

47.5

Model margin

-2.6est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

3.1%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapCommanders
  • +0.117EPA / play-0.052
  • 46.6%Success rate41.7%
  • +0.286EPA / dropback-0.031
  • -0.068EPA / rush-0.089
  • 10.8%Explosive rate9.8%
  • +5.68CPOE+1.13
  • 47.6%Third-down rate31.3%
  • 70.8%Red-zone TD rate55.9%
  • 2.36Points / drive1.39
  • 2.2%Turnover rate2.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

DAL lead 39–16 since 1999

DAL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 44.6 points. WAS are 23-32 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W2WAS @ DAL20–37DAL
2025 · W17DAL @ WAS30–23DAL
2025 · W7WAS @ DAL22–44DAL
2024 · W18WAS @ DAL23–19WAS
2024 · W12DAL @ WAS34–26DAL
2023 · W18DAL @ WAS38–10DAL
2023 · W12WAS @ DAL10–45DAL
2022 · W18DAL @ WAS6–26WAS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–WAS
DALQ1 15:00855Field goal3–0
WASQ1 10:15380Touchdown3–7
DALQ1 8:42480Touchdown10–7
WASQ1 6:2537Punt10–7
DALQ1 5:00574Touchdown17–7
WASQ1 2:0735Punt17–7
DALQ1 0:32930Field goal20–7
WASQ2 11:3000Touchdown20–7
DALQ2 11:27730Touchdown27–7
WASQ2 8:101478Field goal27–10
DALQ2 1:20641End of half27–10
WASQ3 15:00739Turnover on downs27–10
DALQ3 10:5033Punt27–10
WASQ3 9:4032Punt27–10
DALQ3 8:0639Punt27–10
WASQ3 5:40983Turnover27–10
DALQ3 2:2530Punt27–10
WASQ3 1:31421Punt27–10
DALQ4 15:00412Turnover27–10
WASQ4 12:4730Turnover27–10
DALQ4 12:2533Punt27–10
WASQ4 10:441056Touchdown27–17
DALQ4 6:45871Field goal30–17
WASQ4 3:312-13Opp touchdown37–17
WASQ4 3:12643Turnover43–17
DALQ4 1:49165Touchdown44–17
WASQ4 1:40212End of half44–17

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo22/3429921

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray201005.01
Joseph Randle46917.31
Lance Dunbar144.00
Dwayne Harris111.00
Tony Romo100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Dez Bryant46992
Terrance Williams35680
Cole Beasley69570
Jason Witten46490
DeMarco Murray33210
Joseph Randle1230
James Hanna1220
Gavin Escobar0100

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Robert Griffin III27/4133612

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris12433.60
Roy Helu6427.00
Robert Griffin III6193.21

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
DeSean Jackson23861
Jordan Reed910700
Pierre Garcon25530
Roy Helu45410
Santana Moss35250
Niles Paul23190
Alfred Morris23190
Andre Roberts1370
Ryan Grant1270
Logan Paulsen0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -62.7%3.0%4.8%3.1%7.5%7.0%2.7%4.0%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

3.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

42.0%

Expected total

45.4est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.21
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.08
  • Expected margin-2.64