Closing spread
MIA -7
Total
41
Model margin
+2.8est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
4.8%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.074EPA / play+0.019
- 40.5%Success rate48.7%
- -0.051EPA / dropback+0.065
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.063
- 8.4%Explosive rate8.7%
- -3.58CPOE+2.14
- 39.3%Third-down rate41.5%
- 47.3%Red-zone TD rate49.5%
- 1.41Points / drive1.97
- 2.0%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 28–26 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. MIA are 23-28-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geno Smith | 20/25 | 358 | 3 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 0/1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 13 | 29 | 2.2 | 0 |
| Chris Owusu | 1 | 23 | 23.0 | 1 |
| Chris Johnson | 10 | 20 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Geno Smith | 5 | 18 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 2 | 11 | 5.5 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Decker | 10 | 11 | 221 | 1 |
| Zach Sudfeld | 2 | 2 | 44 | 0 |
| Chris Owusu | 1 | 1 | 36 | 0 |
| Jace Amaro | 3 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Jeremy Kerley | 1 | 2 | 33 | 0 |
| Jeff Cumberland | 2 | 3 | 23 | 1 |
| Chris Ivory | 1 | 1 | 8 | 1 |
| Geno Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 1 | 2 | -3 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 23/39 | 259 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lamar Miller | 19 | 178 | 9.4 | 1 |
| Daniel Thomas | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Hartline | 5 | 6 | 94 | 0 |
| Jarvis Landry | 5 | 9 | 55 | 0 |
| Charles Clay | 5 | 6 | 45 | 1 |
| Brandon Gibson | 3 | 7 | 27 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Dion Sims | 2 | 4 | 15 | 0 |
| Daniel Thomas | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| Mike Wallace | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
4.76%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.5%
Expected total
45.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.28
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.76