2014 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Geno Smith

37·24

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

Sun Life Stadium · outdoors · grass · 80°F · wind 12mph

Closing spread

MIA -7

Total

41

Model margin

+2.8est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

4.8%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapDolphins
  • -0.074EPA / play+0.019
  • 40.5%Success rate48.7%
  • -0.051EPA / dropback+0.065
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.063
  • 8.4%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -3.58CPOE+2.14
  • 39.3%Third-down rate41.5%
  • 47.3%Red-zone TD rate49.5%
  • 1.41Points / drive1.97
  • 2.0%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 29–26 since 1999

MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. MIA are 24-28-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7MIA @ NYJ28–25MIA
2025 · W14MIA @ NYJ34–10MIA
2025 · W4NYJ @ MIA21–27MIA
2024 · W18MIA @ NYJ20–32NYJ
2024 · W14NYJ @ MIA26–32MIA
2023 · W15NYJ @ MIA0–30MIA
2023 · W12MIA @ NYJ34–13MIA
2022 · W18NYJ @ MIA6–11MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–MIA
MIAQ1 15:003-8Punt0–0
NYJQ1 13:21516Missed field goal0–0
MIAQ1 10:31861Field goal0–3
NYJQ1 6:13678Touchdown7–3
MIAQ1 3:11629Punt7–3
NYJQ1 0:02412Turnover7–3
MIAQ2 13:27521Touchdown7–10
NYJQ2 10:44779Touchdown14–10
MIAQ2 6:4434Punt14–10
NYJQ2 5:3058Punt14–10
MIAQ2 3:321193Touchdown14–17
NYJQ2 0:431-3End of half14–17
NYJQ3 15:0049Turnover on downs14–23
MIAQ3 13:05197Touchdown14–24
NYJQ3 12:51380Touchdown21–24
MIAQ3 11:35739Turnover on downs21–24
NYJQ3 9:29656Field goal24–24
MIAQ3 6:35413Punt24–24
NYJQ3 4:201078Field goal27–24
MIAQ4 14:12742Missed field goal27–24
NYJQ4 10:4838Punt27–24
MIAQ4 8:5765Punt27–24
NYJQ4 5:46673Touchdown34–24
MIAQ4 3:228-23Turnover34–24
NYJQ4 2:1130Field goal37–24
MIAQ4 0:31114End of half37–24

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Geno Smith20/2535830
Jeremy Kerley0/1000

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory13292.20
Chris Owusu12323.01
Chris Johnson10202.00
Geno Smith5183.60
Jeremy Kerley2115.50
Bilal Powell100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Eric Decker10112211
Zach Sudfeld22440
Chris Owusu11360
Jace Amaro34340
Jeremy Kerley12330
Jeff Cumberland23231
Chris Ivory1181
Geno Smith0100
Chris Johnson12-30

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill23/3925910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Lamar Miller191789.41
Daniel Thomas111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brian Hartline56940
Jarvis Landry59550
Charles Clay56451
Brandon Gibson37270
Damien Williams22220
Dion Sims24150
Daniel Thomas1210
Mike Wallace0100
Lamar Miller0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.9%2.6%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

4.76%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.5%

Expected total

45.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.28
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.76