2014 · Week 17 · Division

Final

Raiders

Oakland

QB Derek Carr

14·47

Broncos

Denver

QB Peyton Manning

Sports Authority Field at Mile High · outdoors · grass · 40°F · wind 7mph

Closing spread

DEN -16.5

Total

49

Model margin

+4.4est.

DEN perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Raiders

Broncos

Win probability

  • Broncos
  • Raiders

How each play moved the game.

Broncos winsRaiders wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

The rivalry

DEN lead 31–23 since 1999

DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14DEN @ LV24–17DEN
2025 · W10LV @ DEN7–10DEN
2024 · W12DEN @ LV29–19DEN
2024 · W5LV @ DEN18–34DEN
2023 · W18DEN @ LV14–27RAIDERS
2023 · W1LV @ DEN17–16RAIDERS
2022 · W11LV @ DEN22–16RAIDERS
2022 · W4DEN @ LV23–32RAIDERS

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultOAK–DEN
LVQ1 15:003-6Punt0–0
DENQ1 13:20934Field goal0–3
LVQ1 9:4030Punt0–3
DENQ1 7:11451Touchdown0–10
LVQ1 5:37310Punt0–10
DENQ1 4:2623Opp touchdown7–10
DENQ1 3:4229Touchdown7–10
DENQ1 2:30441Touchdown7–10
DENQ2 15:00430Touchdown7–17
LVQ2 13:08310Punt7–17
DENQ2 10:5437Punt7–17
LVQ2 9:25624Punt7–17
DENQ2 6:34520Punt7–17
LVQ2 4:0839Punt7–17
DENQ2 2:32951Field goal7–20
LVQ2 0:231-2End of half7–20
DENQ3 15:00230Touchdown7–27
LVQ3 14:081085Touchdown14–27
DENQ3 8:55827Field goal14–30
LVQ3 5:38940Punt14–30
DENQ3 1:171486Field goal14–33
LVQ4 10:1845Punt14–33
DENQ4 7:39519Punt14–33
LVQ4 5:1541Opp touchdown14–40
LVQ4 4:4830Punt14–40
DENQ4 4:20644Touchdown14–47
LVQ4 1:56623Turnover14–47
DENQ4 0:2900End of half14–47

Box score

Individual performances

Broncos

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Peyton Manning21/3727300
Brock Osweiler2/23910

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
C.J. Anderson13876.73
Ronnie Hillman15563.70
Jeremy Stewart451.30
Brock Osweiler1-1-1.00
Peyton Manning1-5-5.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Demaryius Thomas8171150
Emmanuel Sanders69730
Virgil Green33461
Wes Welker22420
C.J. Anderson23200
Cody Latimer12140
Ronnie Hillman1220
Andre Caldwell0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +16.57.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%2.9%

Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Raiders.

Half-point at risk

2.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

60.8%

Expected total

44.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.00
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+4.41

One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.