Closing spread
DEN -16.5
Total
49
Model margin
+4.4est.
DEN perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Broncos
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
DEN lead 31–23 since 1999
DEN have won 4 straight. Meetings average 43.1 points. DEN are 23-29-2 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Broncos
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peyton Manning | 21/37 | 273 | 0 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 2/2 | 39 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| C.J. Anderson | 13 | 87 | 6.7 | 3 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 15 | 56 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Jeremy Stewart | 4 | 5 | 1.3 | 0 |
| Brock Osweiler | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Peyton Manning | 1 | -5 | -5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Demaryius Thomas | 8 | 17 | 115 | 0 |
| Emmanuel Sanders | 6 | 9 | 73 | 0 |
| Virgil Green | 3 | 3 | 46 | 1 |
| Wes Welker | 2 | 2 | 42 | 0 |
| C.J. Anderson | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Cody Latimer | 1 | 2 | 14 | 0 |
| Ronnie Hillman | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
| Andre Caldwell | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Broncos; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.8%
Expected total
44.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+4.41
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.