Closing spread
PHI -1
Total
51.5
Model margin
+2.5est.
NYG perspective
Push chance
2.1%est.
Win probability
- Giants
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.005EPA / play-0.014
- 43.7%Success rate41.2%
- +0.063EPA / dropback+0.072
- -0.113EPA / rush-0.147
- 9.9%Explosive rate7.7%
- -0.76CPOE+0.79
- 44.2%Third-down rate43.5%
- 57.8%Red-zone TD rate63.1%
- 1.88Points / drive1.78
- 3.0%Turnover rate2.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 38–20 since 1999
Meetings average 43.1 points. NYG are 27-30-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Sanchez | 23/36 | 292 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 17 | 99 | 5.8 | 0 |
| Chris Polk | 7 | 38 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Mark Sanchez | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Matthews | 8 | 10 | 105 | 1 |
| Zach Ertz | 4 | 6 | 56 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 3 | 6 | 49 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 2 | 3 | 37 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 3 | 6 | 23 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 1 | 1 | 15 | 0 |
| Josh Huff | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Chris Polk | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Giants
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Manning | 28/53 | 429 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andre Williams | 15 | 43 | 2.9 | 1 |
| Rashad Jennings | 10 | 33 | 3.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odell Beckham Jr. | 12 | 21 | 185 | 1 |
| Rueben Randle | 6 | 13 | 158 | 0 |
| Larry Donnell | 2 | 6 | 26 | 0 |
| Rashad Jennings | 3 | 5 | 21 | 0 |
| Preston Parker | 2 | 4 | 20 | 0 |
| Andre Williams | 3 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Adrien Robinson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Giants; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.10%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.9%
Expected total
44.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.12
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+2.53