Closing spread
KC -3
Total
42.5
Model margin
+0.1est.
KC perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Chargers
- OutMike ScifresPShoulder· DNP
- OutRyan MathewsRBAnkle· DNP
- DoubtfulKeenan AllenWRAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableChris WattGAnkle· Limited
- ProbableCorey LiugetDTAnkle· Full
- ProbablePhilip RiversQBChest· Full
- ProbableShareece WrightCBConcussion· Full
Chiefs
- OutAlex SmithQBSpleen· DNP
- OutPhillip GainesCBIllness· Limited
- QuestionableDwayne BoweWRShoulder· Limited
- QuestionableJamaal CharlesRBHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableZach FultonGFoot· Limited
- ProbableAnthony FasanoTEKnee· Limited
- ProbableJoe MaysLBKnee· Limited
- ProbableTamba HaliLBKnee· Limited
- ProbableJosh MartinLBHand· Full
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 32–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.6 points. KC are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SD–KC |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 4 | 18 | Punt | 0–0 |
| KC | Q1 12:59 | 10 | 59 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| LAC | Q1 6:33 | 6 | 35 | Punt | 0–3 |
| KC | Q1 2:29 | 10 | 83 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| LAC | Q2 12:50 | 6 | 69 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| KC | Q2 10:50 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 7–10 |
| LAC | Q2 9:44 | 6 | 10 | Punt | 7–10 |
| KC | Q2 6:07 | 3 | 5 | Field goal | 7–13 |
| LAC | Q2 3:58 | 4 | 6 | Punt | 7–13 |
| KC | Q2 1:45 | 6 | 41 | Field goal | 7–16 |
| LAC | Q2 0:33 | 2 | 18 | Turnover | 7–16 |
| KC | Q2 0:12 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 7–16 |
| KC | Q3 15:00 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 7–16 |
| LAC | Q3 12:50 | 3 | 15 | Turnover | 7–16 |
| KC | Q3 11:25 | 6 | 9 | Field goal | 7–19 |
| LAC | Q3 8:24 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 7–19 |
| KC | Q3 6:11 | 3 | -5 | Punt | 7–19 |
| LAC | Q3 4:36 | 7 | 42 | Missed field goal | 7–19 |
| KC | Q3 0:26 | 7 | 36 | Missed field goal | 7–19 |
| LAC | Q4 12:17 | 11 | 57 | Turnover on downs | 7–19 |
| KC | Q4 8:32 | 4 | 12 | Punt | 7–19 |
| LAC | Q4 6:42 | 8 | 32 | Turnover on downs | 7–19 |
| KC | Q4 3:33 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 7–19 |
| LAC | Q4 2:23 | 10 | 61 | Turnover | 7–19 |
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Daniel | 16/27 | 157 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 13 | 54 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 9 | 23 | 2.6 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Chase Daniel | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 8 | 84 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Richard Gordon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.3%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.14
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.17
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.10
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.