Closing spread
KC -3
Total
42.5
Model margin
+0.1est.
KC perspective
Push chance
7.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Chiefs
- Chargers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
KC lead 31–23 since 1999
CHARGERS have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.9 points. KC are 26-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Chiefs
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Daniel | 16/27 | 157 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamaal Charles | 13 | 54 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Knile Davis | 9 | 23 | 2.6 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 1 | 18 | 18.0 | 0 |
| Chase Daniel | 3 | 16 | 5.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Travis Kelce | 7 | 8 | 84 | 0 |
| Dwayne Bowe | 3 | 5 | 30 | 0 |
| De'Anthony Thomas | 3 | 3 | 28 | 0 |
| Jamaal Charles | 2 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Richard Gordon | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Albert Wilson | 0 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chiefs; negative favour Chargers.
Half-point at risk
7.36%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.3%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.14
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-2.17
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+0.10
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.