Closing spread
SEA -11
Total
41.5
Model margin
+5.8est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
1.6%est.
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- DoubtfulE.J. GainesCBConcussion· DNP
- ProbableChris LongDENot Injury Related· DNP
- ProbableJanoris JenkinsCBBack· Full
- ProbableScott WellsCBack· Full
Seahawks
- OutDemarcus DobbsDEAnkle· DNP
- OutJermaine KearseWRHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableChris MatthewsWRHamstring· Limited
- QuestionableCooper HelfetTERibs· Limited
- QuestionableMax UngerCKnee· Full
- QuestionableTharold SimonCBShoulder· Limited
- ProbableMarshawn LynchRBBack· Full
- ProbableRussell OkungTChest· Full
- ProbableTony MoeakiTEShoulder· Full
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. SEA are 24-28 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–SEA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LA | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–0 |
| SEA | Q1 13:27 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 12:03 | 10 | 40 | Field goal | 3–0 |
| SEA | Q1 6:25 | 9 | 39 | Turnover on downs | 3–0 |
| LA | Q1 1:21 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 3–0 |
| SEA | Q2 15:00 | 10 | 35 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| LA | Q2 9:28 | 4 | 4 | Punt | 3–0 |
| SEA | Q2 6:43 | 2 | 20 | Turnover | 3–0 |
| LA | Q2 6:08 | 3 | 5 | Field goal | 6–0 |
| SEA | Q2 4:18 | 5 | 34 | Punt | 6–0 |
| LA | Q2 1:09 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 6–0 |
| SEA | Q2 0:43 | 5 | 63 | End of half | 6–0 |
| SEA | Q3 15:00 | 7 | 56 | Field goal | 6–3 |
| LA | Q3 11:13 | 3 | -6 | Punt | 6–3 |
| SEA | Q3 9:12 | 7 | 42 | Field goal | 6–6 |
| LA | Q3 4:45 | 10 | 59 | Turnover | 6–6 |
| SEA | Q4 14:51 | 6 | 54 | Touchdown | 6–13 |
| LA | Q4 12:07 | 5 | 28 | Opp touchdown | 6–20 |
| LA | Q4 9:50 | 10 | 79 | Turnover | 6–20 |
| SEA | Q4 5:58 | 3 | 3 | Punt | 6–20 |
| LA | Q4 4:23 | 8 | 19 | Turnover on downs | 6–20 |
| SEA | Q4 2:11 | 2 | 14 | End of half | 6–20 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 17/25 | 239 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 14 | 60 | 4.3 | 1 |
| Robert Turbin | 11 | 53 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 6 | 7 | 1.2 | 0 |
| Christine Michael | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Richardson | 5 | 7 | 60 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 3 | 4 | 43 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 3 | 3 | 36 | 0 |
| Kevin Norwood | 2 | 2 | 34 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 2 | 4 | 32 | 0 |
| Tony Moeaki | 1 | 1 | 21 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 1 | 1 | 13 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
1.59%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.5%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.33
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.82
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.