Closing spread
CAR -5.5
Total
37.5
Model margin
+7.0est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Cardinals
- OutDrew StantonQBKnee· DNP
- QuestionableDan WilliamsDTFoot· Limited
- QuestionableJonathan CooperGWrist· Limited
- ProbableCalais CampbellDEHip· Full
- ProbableFrostee RuckerDTAnkle· Full
- ProbableLarry FooteLBKnee· Full
- ProbableLyle SendleinCBack· Full
- ProbableTyrann MathieuSThumb· Full
Panthers
- DoubtfulThomas DeCoudSHamstring· DNP
- QuestionableA.J. KleinLBAnkle· Limited
- ProbableCharles JohnsonDENot Injury Related· DNP
- ProbableDeAngelo WilliamsRBHand· Full
- ProbableDerek AndersonQBIllness· Full
- ProbableFernando VelascoGNot Injury Related· Full
Win probability
- Panthers
- Cardinals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.024EPA / play-0.007
- 39.1%Success rate44.6%
- +0.056EPA / dropback+0.059
- -0.165EPA / rush-0.104
- 8.2%Explosive rate8.5%
- -4.59CPOE-1.27
- 40.7%Third-down rate41.1%
- 51.8%Red-zone TD rate57.3%
- 1.54Points / drive1.63
- 1.6%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 14–7 since 1999
Meetings average 45.4 points. CAR are 13-8 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | ARI–CAR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 0–0 |
| CAR | Q1 13:30 | 6 | 19 | Field goal | 0–3 |
| ARI | Q1 11:27 | 3 | 9 | Punt | 0–3 |
| CAR | Q1 9:12 | 9 | 52 | Touchdown | 0–10 |
| ARI | Q1 5:21 | 6 | 17 | Punt | 0–10 |
| ARI | Q1 2:11 | 6 | 15 | Touchdown | 7–10 |
| CAR | Q2 14:56 | 7 | 50 | Missed field goal | 7–10 |
| ARI | Q2 12:01 | 3 | -2 | Punt | 7–10 |
| CAR | Q2 10:17 | 6 | 32 | Punt | 7–10 |
| ARI | Q2 6:54 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–10 |
| CAR | Q2 5:52 | 3 | -3 | Turnover | 7–10 |
| ARI | Q2 4:54 | 4 | 17 | Touchdown | 14–10 |
| CAR | Q2 2:50 | 9 | 58 | Field goal | 14–13 |
| ARI | Q2 0:15 | 1 | 0 | End of half | 14–13 |
| CAR | Q3 15:00 | 13 | 38 | Punt | 14–13 |
| ARI | Q3 7:29 | 3 | 0 | Punt | 14–19 |
| CAR | Q3 5:50 | 1 | 39 | Touchdown | 14–20 |
| ARI | Q3 5:36 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 14–20 |
| CAR | Q3 5:28 | 4 | 1 | Touchdown | 14–27 |
| ARI | Q3 4:04 | 3 | -3 | Punt | 14–27 |
| CAR | Q3 2:13 | 8 | 44 | Punt | 14–27 |
| ARI | Q4 14:11 | 3 | 8 | Punt | 14–27 |
| CAR | Q4 12:38 | 2 | 0 | Turnover | 14–27 |
| ARI | Q4 11:53 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 14–27 |
| CAR | Q4 11:48 | 6 | 51 | Punt | 14–27 |
| ARI | Q4 7:45 | 4 | 1 | Punt | 14–27 |
| CAR | Q4 5:12 | 3 | 8 | Turnover on downs | 14–27 |
| CAR | Q4 2:48 | 1 | 6 | Turnover on downs | 14–27 |
| ARI | Q4 2:41 | 2 | 26 | Turnover | 14–27 |
| ARI | Q4 2:03 | 1 | 0 | Turnover | 14–27 |
| CAR | Q4 1:54 | 2 | -2 | Safety | 14–27 |
| CAR | Q4 0:59 | 2 | -7 | Safety | 16–27 |
| ARI | Q4 0:03 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 16–27 |
| ARI | Q4 0:01 | 1 | -19 | End of half | 16–27 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Lindley | 16/28 | 82 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kerwynn Williams | 10 | 23 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 3 | 3 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Marion Grice | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
| Robert Hughes | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Brown | 4 | 5 | 34 | 0 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 3 | 8 | 31 | 0 |
| John Carlson | 3 | 4 | 25 | 0 |
| Robert Hughes | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Ted Ginn | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Rob Housler | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Kerwynn Williams | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 1 | 2 | -12 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 18/32 | 198 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 24 | 123 | 5.1 | 1 |
| Cam Newton | 7 | 35 | 5.0 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 4 | 16 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | 5 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fozzy Whittaker | 1 | 1 | 39 | 1 |
| Greg Olsen | 3 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Corey Brown | 3 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 1 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 4 | 7 | 33 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 3 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Brenton Bersin | 1 | 1 | 6 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 1 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Cardinals.
Half-point at risk
3.20%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
67.5%
Expected total
43.7est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+2.25
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+2.30
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.03