2014 · DIV

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

17·31

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

CenturyLink Field · outdoors · fieldturf · 48°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

SEA -13.5

Total

40

Model margin

+4.8est.

SEA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Seahawks

Win probability

  • Seahawks
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Seahawks winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapSeahawks
  • -0.007EPA / play+0.091
  • 44.6%Success rate44.0%
  • +0.059EPA / dropback+0.141
  • -0.104EPA / rush+0.030
  • 8.5%Explosive rate11.7%
  • -1.27CPOE+4.40
  • 41.1%Third-down rate43.4%
  • 57.3%Red-zone TD rate60.8%
  • 1.63Points / drive2.06
  • 1.9%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 12–5 since 1999

SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. SEA are 9-7-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W17SEA @ CAR27–10SEA
2023 · W3CAR @ SEA27–37SEA
2022 · W14CAR @ SEA30–24CAR
2019 · W15SEA @ CAR30–24SEA
2018 · W12SEA @ CAR30–27SEA
2016 · W13CAR @ SEA7–40SEA
2015 · playoffsSEA @ CAR24–31CAR
2015 · W6CAR @ SEA27–23CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–SEA
CARQ1 15:0039Punt0–0
SEAQ1 13:39420Punt0–0
CARQ1 11:0538Punt0–0
SEAQ1 9:4238Punt0–0
CARQ1 8:2136Turnover0–0
SEAQ1 6:59637Punt0–0
CARQ1 4:20520Turnover0–0
SEAQ1 2:22428Touchdown0–7
CARQ1 0:561479Touchdown7–7
SEAQ2 7:44577Touchdown7–14
CARQ2 4:541247Field goal10–14
SEAQ3 15:00621Punt10–14
CARQ3 11:26939Punt10–14
SEAQ3 6:271259Field goal10–17
CARQ4 14:5549Punt10–17
SEAQ4 12:53658Touchdown10–24
CARQ4 10:26867Opp touchdown10–31
CARQ4 5:55878Touchdown17–31
SEAQ4 2:34443End of half17–31

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton23/3624622

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart13705.40
Cam Newton11373.40
DeAngelo Williams2147.00
Fozzy Whittaker111.00
Jerricho Cotchery100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kelvin Benjamin710752
Greg Olsen46580
Ed Dickson23330
Jerricho Cotchery36250
Corey Brown25240
Brenton Bersin11110
Jonathan Stewart1140
DeAngelo Williams2220

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson15/2226830

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch14594.20
Russell Wilson7223.10
Robert Turbin7192.70

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jermaine Kearse331291
Luke Willson44681
Doug Baldwin34381
Paul Richardson12210
Marshawn Lynch3360
Ricardo Lockette1260
Robert Turbin0100
Cooper Helfet0300

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +13.57.5%3.2%4.9%3.2%3.0%

Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

2.98%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

61.8%

Expected total

43.6est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.83
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.48
  • Expected margin+4.80