Closing spread
SEA -13.5
Total
40
Model margin
+4.8est.
SEA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Seahawks
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.007EPA / play+0.091
- 44.6%Success rate44.0%
- +0.059EPA / dropback+0.141
- -0.104EPA / rush+0.030
- 8.5%Explosive rate11.7%
- -1.27CPOE+4.40
- 41.1%Third-down rate43.4%
- 57.3%Red-zone TD rate60.8%
- 1.63Points / drive2.06
- 1.9%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 12–5 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. SEA are 9-7-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 23/36 | 246 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 13 | 70 | 5.4 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 11 | 37 | 3.4 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 2 | 14 | 7.0 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Benjamin | 7 | 10 | 75 | 2 |
| Greg Olsen | 4 | 6 | 58 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 2 | 3 | 33 | 0 |
| Jerricho Cotchery | 3 | 6 | 25 | 0 |
| Corey Brown | 2 | 5 | 24 | 0 |
| Brenton Bersin | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 15/22 | 268 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 14 | 59 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 7 | 22 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 7 | 19 | 2.7 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermaine Kearse | 3 | 3 | 129 | 1 |
| Luke Willson | 4 | 4 | 68 | 1 |
| Doug Baldwin | 3 | 4 | 38 | 1 |
| Paul Richardson | 1 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 3 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
| Ricardo Lockette | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 |
| Robert Turbin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Cooper Helfet | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Seahawks; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
2.98%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
61.8%
Expected total
43.6est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.83
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.48
- Expected margin+4.80