Closing spread
GB -5.5
Total
52.5
Model margin
+2.9est.
GB perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Packers
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.117EPA / play+0.142
- 46.6%Success rate47.1%
- +0.286EPA / dropback+0.317
- -0.068EPA / rush-0.133
- 10.8%Explosive rate11.3%
- +5.68CPOE+2.68
- 47.6%Third-down rate47.1%
- 70.8%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
- 2.36Points / drive2.59
- 2.2%Turnover rate1.2%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
GB lead 11–4–1 since 1999
Meetings average 55.8 points. GB are 10-6 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 15/19 | 191 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 25 | 123 | 4.9 | 1 |
| Joseph Randle | 2 | 15 | 7.5 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | 7 | 7.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jason Witten | 6 | 7 | 71 | 0 |
| Dez Bryant | 3 | 4 | 38 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 3 | 3 | 38 | 0 |
| Terrance Williams | 1 | 2 | 38 | 1 |
| DeMarco Murray | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
Packers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 24/35 | 316 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eddie Lacy | 19 | 101 | 5.3 | 0 |
| James Starks | 5 | 16 | 3.2 | 0 |
| Randall Cobb | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Aaron Rodgers | 3 | -4 | -1.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Davante Adams | 7 | 11 | 117 | 1 |
| Randall Cobb | 8 | 11 | 116 | 0 |
| Andrew Quarless | 4 | 4 | 31 | 1 |
| Jordy Nelson | 2 | 5 | 22 | 0 |
| Richard Rodgers | 1 | 1 | 13 | 1 |
| Eddie Lacy | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
3.12%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.8%
Expected total
46.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.15
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.56
- Expected margin+2.90