2014 · DIV

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

21·26

Packers

Green Bay

QB Aaron Rodgers

Lambeau Field · outdoors · grass · 24°F · wind 0mph

Closing spread

GB -5.5

Total

52.5

Model margin

+2.9est.

GB perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Packers

Win probability

  • Packers
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Packers winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapPackers
  • +0.117EPA / play+0.142
  • 46.6%Success rate47.1%
  • +0.286EPA / dropback+0.317
  • -0.068EPA / rush-0.133
  • 10.8%Explosive rate11.3%
  • +5.68CPOE+2.68
  • 47.6%Third-down rate47.1%
  • 70.8%Red-zone TD rate63.9%
  • 2.36Points / drive2.59
  • 2.2%Turnover rate1.2%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

GB lead 12–4–1 since 1999

Meetings average 54.6 points. GB are 11-6 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W6DAL @ GB13–23GB
2025 · W4GB @ DAL40–40Tie
2023 · playoffsGB @ DAL48–32GB
2022 · W10DAL @ GB28–31GB
2019 · W5GB @ DAL34–24GB
2017 · W5GB @ DAL35–31GB
2016 · playoffsGB @ DAL34–31GB
2016 · W6DAL @ GB30–16DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–GB
DALQ1 15:0030Punt0–0
GBQ1 12:521060Touchdown0–7
DALQ1 8:301551Touchdown7–7
GBQ1 1:051322Turnover7–7
DALQ2 11:12564Touchdown14–7
GBQ2 8:19615Punt14–7
DALQ2 5:371154Missed field goal14–7
GBQ2 0:29438Field goal14–10
GBQ3 15:00614Punt14–10
DALQ3 12:1931Turnover14–10
GBQ3 11:04547Field goal14–13
DALQ3 7:46680Touchdown21–13
GBQ3 4:12795Touchdown21–20
DALQ3 1:41515Punt21–20
GBQ4 13:29880Touchdown21–26
DALQ4 9:10750Turnover on downs21–26
GBQ4 4:06649End of half21–26

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo15/1919120

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray251234.91
Joseph Randle2157.50
Tony Romo177.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jason Witten67710
Dez Bryant34380
Cole Beasley33380
Terrance Williams12381
DeMarco Murray1250

Packers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Aaron Rodgers24/3531630

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Eddie Lacy191015.30
James Starks5163.20
Randall Cobb122.00
Aaron Rodgers3-4-1.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Davante Adams7111171
Randall Cobb8111160
Andrew Quarless44311
Jordy Nelson25220
Richard Rodgers11131
Eddie Lacy11100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +5.53.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%2.7%

Positive margins favour Packers; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

3.12%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.8%

Expected total

46.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.15
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.56
  • Expected margin+2.90