Closing spread
MIN -7.5
Total
39
Model margin
-1.6est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Vikings
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.033EPA / play-0.254
- 43.2%Success rate36.7%
- -0.029EPA / dropback-0.277
- -0.037EPA / rush-0.213
- 10.4%Explosive rate7.2%
- -0.23CPOE-5.63
- 35.8%Third-down rate31.5%
- 68.8%Red-zone TD rate51.4%
- 1.51Points / drive0.92
- 3.0%Turnover rate3.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIN lead 8–4 since 1999
MIN have won 2 straight. Meetings average 39.3 points. SF are 5-7 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Vikings
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarvaris Jackson | 16/25 | 163 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chester Taylor | 8 | 101 | 12.6 | 1 |
| Tarvaris Jackson | 9 | 13 | 1.4 | 0 |
| Adrian Peterson | 14 | 3 | 0.2 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shaun Hill | 22/28 | 181 | 1 | 1 |
| Trent Dilfer | 7/19 | 45 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Gore | 16 | 68 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Shaun Hill | 1 | 3 | 3.0 | 0 |
| Trent Dilfer | 2 | 1 | 0.5 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Vikings.
Half-point at risk
4.63%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
44.8%
Expected total
41.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-4.15
- Home-field advantage+2.56
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.59