Closing spread
PHI -2.5
Total
49
Model margin
+2.2est.
ATL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Falcons
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.053EPA / play+0.046
- 47.0%Success rate43.6%
- +0.077EPA / dropback+0.130
- +0.010EPA / rush-0.087
- 12.1%Explosive rate9.6%
- +0.41CPOE+1.80
- 42.0%Third-down rate45.0%
- 54.9%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
- 1.91Points / drive1.86
- 3.2%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 12–6 since 1999
Meetings average 40.4 points. ATL are 6-11-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Vick | 19/28 | 242 | 2 | 1 |
| Mike Kafka | 7/9 | 72 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeSean McCoy | 18 | 95 | 5.3 | 2 |
| Mike Vick | 6 | 25 | 4.2 | 0 |
| Ronnie Brown | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Mike Kafka | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Maclin | 13 | 15 | 171 | 2 |
| Brent Celek | 4 | 7 | 43 | 0 |
| Jason Avant | 1 | 4 | 29 | 0 |
| Steve Smith | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| DeSean Jackson | 2 | 3 | 21 | 0 |
| LeSean McCoy | 4 | 4 | 21 | 0 |
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 17/28 | 195 | 4 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Turner | 21 | 114 | 5.4 | 1 |
| Jacquizz Rodgers | 3 | 17 | 5.7 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Gonzalez | 7 | 9 | 83 | 2 |
| Michael Turner | 1 | 1 | 32 | 0 |
| Julio Jones | 2 | 8 | 29 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 3 | 4 | 23 | 1 |
| Harry Douglas | 2 | 2 | 19 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
2.05%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.0%
Expected total
44.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.29
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.19