2011 · Week 2

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Michael Vick

31·35

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

Georgia Dome · dome · fieldturf

Closing spread

PHI -2.5

Total

49

Model margin

+2.2est.

ATL perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Falcons

Win probability

  • Falcons
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Falcons winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapFalcons
  • +0.053EPA / play+0.046
  • 47.0%Success rate43.6%
  • +0.077EPA / dropback+0.130
  • +0.010EPA / rush-0.087
  • 12.1%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +0.41CPOE+1.80
  • 42.0%Third-down rate45.0%
  • 54.9%Red-zone TD rate57.5%
  • 1.91Points / drive1.86
  • 3.2%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 12–6 since 1999

Meetings average 40.4 points. ATL are 6-11-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2024 · W2ATL @ PHI22–21ATL
2021 · W1PHI @ ATL32–6PHI
2019 · W2PHI @ ATL20–24ATL
2018 · W1ATL @ PHI12–18PHI
2017 · playoffsATL @ PHI10–15PHI
2016 · W10ATL @ PHI15–24PHI
2015 · W1PHI @ ATL24–26ATL
2012 · W8ATL @ PHI30–17ATL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–ATL
PHIQ1 15:00419Punt0–0
ATLQ1 12:18834Punt0–0
PHIQ1 7:5332Punt0–0
ATLQ1 6:42736Touchdown0–7
PHIQ1 2:441380Touchdown7–7
ATLQ2 10:5431Punt7–7
PHIQ2 9:37642Field goal10–7
ATLQ2 6:4633Punt10–7
PHIQ2 4:54748Turnover10–7
ATLQ2 1:57424Touchdown10–14
PHIQ2 0:44222Turnover10–14
ATLQ2 0:1420Turnover10–14
PHIQ2 0:0319Missed field goal10–14
ATLQ3 15:0035Punt10–14
PHIQ3 13:0110Turnover10–14
ATLQ3 12:52249Touchdown10–21
PHIQ3 11:56470Touchdown17–21
ATLQ3 10:0010Turnover17–21
PHIQ3 9:46422Touchdown24–21
ATLQ3 7:523-1Punt24–21
PHIQ3 6:41419Punt24–21
ATLQ3 5:3131Punt24–21
PHIQ3 4:04617Touchdown31–21
ATLQ3 1:591480Touchdown31–28
PHIQ4 10:45428Punt31–28
ATLQ4 8:12790Touchdown31–35
PHIQ4 4:48969Turnover on downs31–35
ATLQ4 1:4100Punt31–35
PHIQ4 0:0510End of half31–35

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Mike Vick19/2824221
Mike Kafka7/97200

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
LeSean McCoy18955.32
Mike Vick6254.20
Ronnie Brown3103.30
Mike Kafka122.00
Jeremy Maclin111.00
DeSean Jackson100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jeremy Maclin13151712
Brent Celek47430
Jason Avant14290
Steve Smith23290
DeSean Jackson23210
LeSean McCoy44210

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan17/2819542

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Michael Turner211145.41
Jacquizz Rodgers3175.70
Matt Ryan461.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tony Gonzalez79832
Michael Turner11320
Julio Jones28290
Roddy White34231
Harry Douglas22190

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.54.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Falcons; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

2.05%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.0%

Expected total

44.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-0.29
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.19