Closing spread
SEA -3.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-0.5est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Rams
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. STL are 28-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 32/41 | 251 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 18 | 73 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Thomas Rawls | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermaine Kearse | 8 | 10 | 76 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 6 | 8 | 51 | 1 |
| Doug Baldwin | 7 | 9 | 35 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 4 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 5 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Chris Matthews | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.6%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.02
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.53
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.