Closing spread
SEA -3.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-0.5est.
STL perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Seahawks
- OutMichael MorganLBHamstring· Out (Definitely Will Not Play)
- QuestionableTharold SimonCBToe· Limited
- ProbableCooper HelfetTEKnee· Full
- ProbableMarshawn LynchRBNot Injury Related· Full
- ProbableTarvaris JacksonQBAnkle· Full
Rams
- OutTodd GurleyRBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableDaren BatesLBKnee· Limited
- QuestionableTre MasonRBThigh· DNP
Win probability
- Rams
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SEA lead 28–24 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 43.7 points. STL are 28-24 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | SEA–STL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | Q1 15:00 | 12 | 45 | Punt | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 6:51 | 3 | -10 | Opp touchdown | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 4:31 | 9 | 80 | Touchdown | 7–7 |
| SEA | Q2 14:55 | 6 | 9 | Turnover | 7–7 |
| LA | Q2 11:10 | 7 | 16 | Field goal | 7–10 |
| SEA | Q2 7:31 | 8 | 20 | Punt | 7–10 |
| LA | Q2 2:56 | 3 | 5 | Punt | 7–10 |
| SEA | Q2 1:49 | 9 | 58 | Field goal | 10–10 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 3 | 27 | Turnover | 10–10 |
| SEA | Q3 13:18 | 6 | 30 | Field goal | 13–10 |
| LA | Q3 9:40 | 7 | 64 | Touchdown | 13–17 |
| SEA | Q3 6:10 | 3 | -2 | Opp touchdown | 13–24 |
| LA | Q3 4:30 | 0 | 0 | Opp touchdown | 13–24 |
| SEA | Q3 4:30 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 13–24 |
| LA | Q3 2:55 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 13–24 |
| SEA | Q3 1:12 | 12 | 73 | Touchdown | 21–24 |
| LA | Q4 12:04 | 5 | 57 | Turnover | 21–24 |
| SEA | Q4 8:56 | 9 | 58 | Field goal | 24–24 |
| LA | Q4 4:46 | 1 | -12 | Opp touchdown | 31–24 |
| LA | Q4 4:39 | 12 | 89 | Touchdown | 31–31 |
| SEA | Q4 0:53 | 4 | 10 | End of half | 31–31 |
| LA | OT | 5 | 30 | Field goal | 31–34 |
| SEA | OT | 7 | 37 | Turnover on downs | 31–34 |
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 32/41 | 251 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 18 | 73 | 4.1 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 8 | 31 | 3.9 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 3 | 13 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Thomas Rawls | 2 | 5 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jermaine Kearse | 8 | 10 | 76 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 6 | 8 | 51 | 1 |
| Doug Baldwin | 7 | 9 | 35 | 0 |
| Tyler Lockett | 4 | 4 | 34 | 0 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 5 | 7 | 31 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 1 | 1 | 16 | 0 |
| Chris Matthews | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Luke Willson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Rams; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
7.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
47.6%
Expected total
44.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.02
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-0.53
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.