Closing spread
PHI -7
Total
53
Model margin
+1.2est.
PHI perspective
Push chance
4.6%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Eagles
- Cowboys
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.073EPA / play-0.044
- 43.9%Success rate42.7%
- -0.070EPA / dropback-0.008
- -0.077EPA / rush-0.105
- 8.6%Explosive rate8.7%
- -0.85CPOE-0.86
- 34.0%Third-down rate39.1%
- 42.4%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
- 1.31Points / drive1.56
- 3.1%Turnover rate2.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 29–26 since 1999
Meetings average 44.8 points. PHI are 27-27-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cowboys
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tony Romo | 18/27 | 195 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Weeden | 7/7 | 73 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joseph Randle | 18 | 51 | 2.8 | 0 |
| Darren McFadden | 10 | 31 | 3.1 | 0 |
| Tony Romo | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 1 | 8 | 8.0 | 0 |
| Brandon Weeden | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terrance Williams | 4 | 7 | 84 | 1 |
| Jason Witten | 7 | 8 | 56 | 0 |
| Lance Dunbar | 3 | 5 | 45 | 0 |
| Darren McFadden | 2 | 2 | 21 | 0 |
| Devin Street | 1 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Gavin Escobar | 2 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Cole Beasley | 4 | 5 | 14 | 0 |
| Joseph Randle | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Geoff Swaim | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bradford | 23/37 | 224 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bradford | 2 | 9 | 4.5 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 13 | 2 | 0.2 | 0 |
| Ryan Mathews | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Matthews | 6 | 9 | 80 | 1 |
| DeMarco Murray | 5 | 5 | 53 | 0 |
| Nelson Agholor | 3 | 6 | 31 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 4 | 4 | 23 | 0 |
| Josh Huff | 2 | 3 | 20 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 3 | 7 | 17 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Riley Cooper | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.
Half-point at risk
4.58%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
52.3%
Expected total
45.5est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.17
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-1.37
- Rest differential-0.08
- Expected margin+1.21