2015 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Cowboys

Dallas

QB Tony Romo

20·10

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Sam Bradford

Lincoln Financial Field · outdoors · grass · 77°F · wind 15mph

Closing spread

PHI -7

Total

53

Model margin

+1.2est.

PHI perspective

Push chance

4.6%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Cowboys

Eagles

Win probability

  • Eagles
  • Cowboys

How each play moved the game.

Eagles winsCowboys wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Cowboysedge mapEagles
  • -0.073EPA / play-0.044
  • 43.9%Success rate42.7%
  • -0.070EPA / dropback-0.008
  • -0.077EPA / rush-0.105
  • 8.6%Explosive rate8.7%
  • -0.85CPOE-0.86
  • 34.0%Third-down rate39.1%
  • 42.4%Red-zone TD rate66.8%
  • 1.31Points / drive1.56
  • 3.1%Turnover rate2.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 29–27 since 1999

DAL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 45 points. PHI are 27-28-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7DAL @ PHI38–21DAL
2025 · W12PHI @ DAL21–24DAL
2025 · W1DAL @ PHI20–24PHI
2024 · W17DAL @ PHI7–41PHI
2024 · W10PHI @ DAL34–6PHI
2023 · W14PHI @ DAL13–33DAL
2023 · W9DAL @ PHI23–28PHI
2022 · W16PHI @ DAL34–40DAL

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultDAL–PHI
DALQ1 15:0031Punt0–0
PHIQ1 12:3039Punt0–0
DALQ1 11:4039Punt0–0
PHIQ1 9:2856Punt0–0
DALQ1 7:431179Field goal3–0
PHIQ1 1:3930Punt3–0
DALQ1 0:19732Punt3–0
PHIQ2 10:2332Punt3–0
DALQ2 9:10413Punt3–0
PHIQ2 7:0744Punt3–0
DALQ2 5:241859Field goal6–0
PHIQ3 15:00412Opp touchdown13–0
PHIQ3 12:3530Punt13–0
DALQ3 12:13639Turnover13–0
PHIQ3 9:441237Turnover13–0
DALQ3 5:24524Punt13–0
PHIQ3 1:33737Field goal13–3
DALQ4 14:171147Turnover13–3
PHIQ4 7:2010Turnover13–3
DALQ4 7:15412Punt13–3
PHIQ4 4:53324Turnover13–3
DALQ4 4:29346Touchdown20–3
PHIQ4 4:131395Touchdown20–10
DALQ4 1:2100End of half20–10

Box score

Individual performances

Cowboys

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Tony Romo18/2719500
Brandon Weeden7/77310

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Joseph Randle18512.80
Darren McFadden10313.10
Tony Romo11212.00
Lance Dunbar188.00
Brandon Weeden372.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Terrance Williams47841
Jason Witten78560
Lance Dunbar35450
Darren McFadden22210
Devin Street12180
Gavin Escobar23160
Cole Beasley45140
Joseph Randle11140
Geoff Swaim1100

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Bradford23/3722412

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Sam Bradford294.50
DeMarco Murray1320.20
Ryan Mathews100.00
Darren Sproles1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jordan Matthews69801
DeMarco Murray55530
Nelson Agholor36310
Darren Sproles44230
Josh Huff23200
Zach Ertz37170
Miles Austin0100
Riley Cooper0200

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +74.2%2.8%7.2%7.5%3.0%4.6%2.9%

Positive margins favour Eagles; negative favour Cowboys.

Half-point at risk

4.58%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

52.3%

Expected total

45.5est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.17
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-1.37
  • Rest differential-0.08
  • Expected margin+1.21