2015 · Week 2 · Division

Final

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

26·19

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

NO -9.5

Total

47

Model margin

+2.6est.

NO perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Buccaneers

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Buccaneers

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsBuccaneers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Buccaneersedge mapSaints
  • +0.008EPA / play+0.080
  • 44.4%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.106EPA / dropback+0.161
  • -0.141EPA / rush-0.078
  • 9.6%Explosive rate10.0%
  • -0.02CPOE+2.78
  • 41.4%Third-down rate48.9%
  • 57.1%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
  • 1.77Points / drive2.09
  • 2.4%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 28–23 since 1999

Meetings average 44.2 points. NO are 27-24 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W14NO @ TB24–20NO
2025 · W8TB @ NO23–3TB
2024 · W18NO @ TB19–27TB
2024 · W6TB @ NO51–27TB
2023 · W17NO @ TB23–13NO
2023 · W4TB @ NO26–9TB
2022 · W13NO @ TB16–17TB
2022 · W2TB @ NO20–10TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultTB–NO
NOQ1 15:00845Punt0–0
TBQ1 10:38749Punt0–0
NOQ1 6:555-10Punt0–0
TBQ1 3:58524Field goal3–0
NOQ1 0:45617Punt3–0
TBQ2 12:1738Punt3–0
NOQ2 11:1059Punt3–0
TBQ2 8:06825Missed field goal3–0
NOQ2 4:25758Touchdown3–7
TBQ2 1:23758Touchdown10–7
NOQ2 0:1200End of half10–7
TBQ3 15:00540Touchdown17–7
NOQ3 13:02514Turnover17–7
TBQ3 11:14941Field goal20–7
NOQ3 6:04428Turnover20–7
TBQ3 4:04457Field goal23–7
NOQ3 2:201480Touchdown23–13
TBQ4 10:1735Turnover23–13
NOQ4 8:5031Missed field goal23–13
TBQ4 8:031-2Turnover23–13
NOQ4 7:58230Touchdown23–19
TBQ4 7:15822Punt23–19
NOQ4 3:092-6Turnover23–19
TBQ4 2:5846Field goal26–19
NOQ4 1:511158End of half26–19

Box score

Individual performances

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston14/2120710

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin21783.70
Charles Sims8384.80
Jameis Winston6233.81

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Louis Murphy34820
Vincent Jackson35541
Austin Seferian-Jenkins23290
Doug Martin22200
Charles Sims33140
Bobby Rainey1180
Mike Evans0300

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees24/3825511

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram16533.31
Khiry Robinson5489.60
C.J. Spiller372.30
Drew Brees1-1-1.00
Brandin Cooks1-4-4.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Marques Colston45690
Brandin Cooks57620
Willie Snead46441
Brandon Coleman36330
C.J. Spiller11190
Benjamin Watson24120
Khiry Robinson1190
Mark Ingram3350
Josh Hill1420

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +9.57.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%2.7%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Buccaneers.

Half-point at risk

3.02%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.0%

Expected total

47.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.11
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.60