2015 · Week 2 · Division
Final
Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf
Closing spread
NO -9.5
Total
47
Model margin
+2.6est.
NO perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Saints
- Buccaneers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.008EPA / play+0.080
- 44.4%Success rate44.6%
- +0.106EPA / dropback+0.161
- -0.141EPA / rush-0.078
- 9.6%Explosive rate10.0%
- -0.02CPOE+2.78
- 41.4%Third-down rate48.9%
- 57.1%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
- 1.77Points / drive2.09
- 2.4%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 28–23 since 1999
Meetings average 44.2 points. NO are 27-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 14/21 | 207 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 21 | 78 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 8 | 38 | 4.8 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Murphy | 3 | 4 | 82 | 0 |
| Vincent Jackson | 3 | 5 | 54 | 1 |
| Austin Seferian-Jenkins | 2 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Doug Martin | 2 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 3 | 3 | 14 | 0 |
| Bobby Rainey | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 24/38 | 255 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 16 | 53 | 3.3 | 1 |
| Khiry Robinson | 5 | 48 | 9.6 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 3 | 7 | 2.3 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 1 | -4 | -4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marques Colston | 4 | 5 | 69 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 5 | 7 | 62 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 4 | 6 | 44 | 1 |
| Brandon Coleman | 3 | 6 | 33 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 1 | 1 | 19 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 2 | 4 | 12 | 0 |
| Khiry Robinson | 1 | 1 | 9 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 1 | 4 | 2 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Buccaneers.
Half-point at risk
3.02%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.0%
Expected total
47.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.11
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.60