2015 · Week 3 · Division

Final

Saints

New Orleans

QB Luke McCown

22·27

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

Bank of America Stadium · outdoors · grass · 69°F · wind 9mph

Closing spread

CAR -10

Total

43

Model margin

+7.3est.

CAR perspective

Push chance

3.4%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Saints

Panthers

Win probability

  • Panthers
  • Saints

How each play moved the game.

Panthers winsSaints wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Saintsedge mapPanthers
  • +0.080EPA / play+0.074
  • 44.6%Success rate45.5%
  • +0.161EPA / dropback+0.153
  • -0.078EPA / rush-0.022
  • 10.0%Explosive rate10.3%
  • +2.78CPOE+0.41
  • 48.9%Third-down rate42.1%
  • 65.6%Red-zone TD rate71.5%
  • 2.09Points / drive2.31
  • 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 31–24 since 1999

NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2025 · W15CAR @ NO17–20NO
2025 · W10NO @ CAR17–7NO
2024 · W9NO @ CAR22–23CAR
2024 · W1CAR @ NO10–47NO
2023 · W14CAR @ NO6–28NO
2023 · W2NO @ CAR20–17NO
2022 · W18CAR @ NO10–7CAR
2022 · W3NO @ CAR14–22CAR

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNO–CAR
NOQ1 15:001157Field goal3–0
CARQ1 9:00743Punt3–0
NOQ1 5:551789Touchdown10–0
CARQ2 11:4413100Touchdown10–7
NOQ2 5:14424Punt10–7
CARQ2 2:061079Field goal10–10
NOQ2 0:0200End of half10–10
CARQ3 15:00414Opp touchdown16–10
CARQ3 12:31881Touchdown16–17
NOQ3 8:43834Turnover16–17
CARQ3 4:47829Field goal16–20
NOQ3 1:31615Punt16–20
CARQ4 13:37973Touchdown16–27
NOQ4 9:321080Touchdown22–27
CARQ4 4:5036Punt22–27
NOQ4 3:501148Turnover22–27
CARQ4 1:0936Punt22–27
NOQ4 0:10233End of half22–27

Box score

Individual performances

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Luke McCown31/3831001

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram14503.61
Khiry Robinson7121.71
C.J. Spiller144.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandin Cooks78790
Mark Ingram55490
Marques Colston46470
Willie Snead57440
Benjamin Watson44420
C.J. Spiller22220
Josh Hill11100
Brandon Coleman1390
Khiry Robinson2280

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton20/3131520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jonathan Stewart14523.70
Cam Newton7334.71
Corey Brown11212.00
Cameron Artis-Payne362.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Greg Olsen8111342
Ted Ginn46930
Ed Dickson23190
Fozzy Whittaker11140
Devin Funchess14140
Brenton Bersin12130
Jonathan Stewart0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +105.8%7.2%3.2%5.0%3.4%3.3%2.6%

Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Saints.

Half-point at risk

3.41%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

68.2%

Expected total

46.9est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.46
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+1.36
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+7.31