Closing spread
CAR -10
Total
43
Model margin
+7.3est.
CAR perspective
Push chance
3.4%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Panthers
- Saints
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.080EPA / play+0.074
- 44.6%Success rate45.5%
- +0.161EPA / dropback+0.153
- -0.078EPA / rush-0.022
- 10.0%Explosive rate10.3%
- +2.78CPOE+0.41
- 48.9%Third-down rate42.1%
- 65.6%Red-zone TD rate71.5%
- 2.09Points / drive2.31
- 1.7%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 31–24 since 1999
NO have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.3 points. CAR are 28-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke McCown | 31/38 | 310 | 0 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 14 | 50 | 3.6 | 1 |
| Khiry Robinson | 7 | 12 | 1.7 | 1 |
| C.J. Spiller | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandin Cooks | 7 | 8 | 79 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 5 | 5 | 49 | 0 |
| Marques Colston | 4 | 6 | 47 | 0 |
| Willie Snead | 5 | 7 | 44 | 0 |
| Benjamin Watson | 4 | 4 | 42 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 2 | 2 | 22 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Brandon Coleman | 1 | 3 | 9 | 0 |
| Khiry Robinson | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 |
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 20/31 | 315 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Stewart | 14 | 52 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Cam Newton | 7 | 33 | 4.7 | 1 |
| Corey Brown | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Cameron Artis-Payne | 3 | 6 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Greg Olsen | 8 | 11 | 134 | 2 |
| Ted Ginn | 4 | 6 | 93 | 0 |
| Ed Dickson | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 1 | 1 | 14 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 1 | 4 | 14 | 0 |
| Brenton Bersin | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Panthers; negative favour Saints.
Half-point at risk
3.41%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
68.2%
Expected total
46.9est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.46
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+1.36
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+7.31