2015 · Week 3 · Division

Final

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

7·47

Cardinals

Arizona

QB Carson Palmer

University of Phoenix Stadium · closed · grass

Closing spread

ARI -7

Total

45

Model margin

+5.9est.

ARI perspective

Push chance

5.0%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

49ers

Cardinals

Win probability

  • Cardinals
  • 49ers

How each play moved the game.

Cardinals wins49ers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

49ersedge mapCardinals
  • -0.091EPA / play+0.133
  • 38.8%Success rate47.7%
  • -0.060EPA / dropback+0.260
  • -0.150EPA / rush-0.059
  • 8.0%Explosive rate10.8%
  • -3.50CPOE+4.51
  • 30.2%Third-down rate47.4%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
  • 1.32Points / drive2.34
  • 1.5%Turnover rate2.1%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SF lead 29–22 since 1999

SF have won 3 straight. Meetings average 45.3 points. ARI are 24-26-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3ARI @ SF30–36SF
2025 · W11SF @ ARI41–22SF
2025 · W3ARI @ SF15–16SF
2024 · W18SF @ ARI24–47ARI
2024 · W5ARI @ SF24–23ARI
2023 · W15SF @ ARI45–29SF
2023 · W4ARI @ SF16–35SF
2022 · W18ARI @ SF13–38SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSF–ARI
ARIQ1 15:00535Punt0–0
SFQ1 12:103-1Opp touchdown0–7
SFQ1 11:06411Opp touchdown0–14
SFQ1 9:03523Punt0–14
ARIQ1 5:541495Touchdown0–21
SFQ2 14:56421Punt0–21
ARIQ2 11:531076Touchdown0–28
SFQ2 7:49524Punt0–28
ARIQ2 4:5433Punt0–28
SFQ2 3:08319Touchdown7–28
ARIQ2 2:03636Turnover7–28
SFQ2 0:5337Turnover7–28
ARIQ2 0:30321Field goal7–31
SFQ3 15:0010Turnover7–31
ARIQ3 14:47458Touchdown7–38
SFQ3 12:29613Punt7–38
ARIQ3 8:57733Punt7–40
SFQ3 4:241-1Safety7–40
ARIQ3 4:18613Punt7–40
SFQ3 0:3563Punt7–40
ARIQ4 12:571379Touchdown7–47
SFQ4 5:15937Punt7–47
ARIQ4 1:5800End of half7–47

Box score

Individual performances

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick9/196704

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde15513.40
Colin Kaepernick7466.61
Mike Davis760.90

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Garrett Celek33290
Anquan Boldin24160
Carlos Hyde11100
Quinton Patton1370
Mike Davis1350
Vernon Davis0200
Torrey Smith0200
Blake Bell1100

Cardinals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Carson Palmer20/3231121

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Johnson221105.02
David Johnson7253.60
Stepfan Taylor461.50
Carson Palmer111.00
Drew Stanton3-3-1.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Larry Fitzgerald9111342
John Brown35620
Chris Johnson12400
Jermaine Gresham23340
David Johnson33160
Darren Fells12130
Michael Floyd15120

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +73.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%3.1%

Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.

Half-point at risk

4.97%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.6%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.89
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment-0.49
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+5.88