Closing spread
ARI -7
Total
45
Model margin
+5.9est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
5.0%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- 49ers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.091EPA / play+0.133
- 38.8%Success rate47.7%
- -0.060EPA / dropback+0.260
- -0.150EPA / rush-0.059
- 8.0%Explosive rate10.8%
- -3.50CPOE+4.51
- 30.2%Third-down rate47.4%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate61.1%
- 1.32Points / drive2.34
- 1.5%Turnover rate2.1%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SF lead 28–22 since 1999
SF have won 2 straight. Meetings average 44.8 points. ARI are 23-26-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 9/19 | 67 | 0 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 15 | 51 | 3.4 | 0 |
| Colin Kaepernick | 7 | 46 | 6.6 | 1 |
| Mike Davis | 7 | 6 | 0.9 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garrett Celek | 3 | 3 | 29 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 2 | 4 | 16 | 0 |
| Carlos Hyde | 1 | 1 | 10 | 0 |
| Quinton Patton | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
| Mike Davis | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 |
| Vernon Davis | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Blake Bell | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 20/32 | 311 | 2 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 22 | 110 | 5.0 | 2 |
| David Johnson | 7 | 25 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Stepfan Taylor | 4 | 6 | 1.5 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 0 |
| Drew Stanton | 3 | -3 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 9 | 11 | 134 | 2 |
| John Brown | 3 | 5 | 62 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 1 | 2 | 40 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 2 | 3 | 34 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 3 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 1 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Michael Floyd | 1 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour 49ers.
Half-point at risk
4.97%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.6%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.89
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment-0.49
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+5.88