2015 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Panthers

Carolina

QB Cam Newton

37·23

Buccaneers

Tampa Bay

QB Jameis Winston

Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

CAR -3

Total

40

Model margin

-1.1est.

TB perspective

Push chance

7.5%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Panthers

Buccaneers

Win probability

  • Buccaneers
  • Panthers

How each play moved the game.

Buccaneers winsPanthers wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Panthersedge mapBuccaneers
  • +0.074EPA / play+0.008
  • 45.5%Success rate44.4%
  • +0.153EPA / dropback+0.106
  • -0.022EPA / rush-0.141
  • 10.3%Explosive rate9.6%
  • +0.41CPOE-0.02
  • 42.1%Third-down rate41.4%
  • 71.5%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
  • 2.31Points / drive1.77
  • 1.8%Turnover rate2.4%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

CAR lead 25–24 since 1999

TB have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42 points. TB are 22-27 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7TB @ CAR43–13TB
2025 · W18CAR @ TB14–16TB
2025 · W16TB @ CAR20–23CAR
2024 · W17CAR @ TB14–48TB
2024 · W13TB @ CAR26–23TB
2023 · W18TB @ CAR9–0TB
2023 · W13CAR @ TB18–21TB
2022 · W17CAR @ TB24–30TB

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCAR–TB
TBQ1 15:0023Turnover0–0
CARQ1 14:21415Field goal3–0
TBQ1 12:0932Opp touchdown10–0
TBQ1 10:41739Field goal10–3
CARQ1 7:03837Punt10–3
TBQ1 2:50627Punt10–3
CARQ2 14:5130Punt10–3
TBQ2 14:2210Turnover10–3
CARQ2 14:14845Touchdown17–3
TBQ2 10:501380Touchdown17–10
CARQ2 4:23516Punt17–10
TBQ2 1:46939Missed field goal17–10
CARQ2 0:0200End of half17–10
CARQ3 15:0010Turnover17–10
TBQ3 14:5330Missed field goal23–10
CARQ3 12:3818Touchdown24–10
TBQ3 12:25631Turnover24–10
CARQ3 9:50533Touchdown31–10
TBQ3 7:25985Touchdown31–17
CARQ3 2:48760Field goal34–17
TBQ4 13:2835Punt34–17
CARQ4 12:27726Punt34–17
TBQ4 8:16512Turnover34–17
CARQ4 6:5667Field goal37–17
TBQ4 4:151288Touchdown37–23
CARQ4 0:5800End of half37–23

Box score

Individual performances

Panthers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Cam Newton11/2212420

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Cam Newton12514.30
Jonathan Stewart10505.00
Cameron Artis-Payne8253.10

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brenton Bersin44540
Greg Olsen26280
Ted Ginn23182
Ed Dickson12110
Fozzy Whittaker12100
Corey Brown1330
Devin Funchess0200

Buccaneers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Jameis Winston26/4328724

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Doug Martin201065.31
Charles Sims6233.80
Jameis Winston4123.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vincent Jackson10151471
Doug Martin55370
Mike Evans38320
Charles Sims35301
Louis Murphy34260
Brandon Myers1380
Cameron Brate1170

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -32.8%4.6%3.0%7.5%7.2%2.8%4.2%

Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Panthers.

Half-point at risk

7.45%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

46.1%

Expected total

45.8est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.57
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-1.09