2015 · Week 4 · Division
Final
Raymond James Stadium · outdoors · grass · 74°F · wind 5mph
Closing spread
CAR -3
Total
40
Model margin
-1.1est.
TB perspective
Push chance
7.5%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Buccaneers
- Panthers
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.074EPA / play+0.008
- 45.5%Success rate44.4%
- +0.153EPA / dropback+0.106
- -0.022EPA / rush-0.141
- 10.3%Explosive rate9.6%
- +0.41CPOE-0.02
- 42.1%Third-down rate41.4%
- 71.5%Red-zone TD rate57.1%
- 2.31Points / drive1.77
- 1.8%Turnover rate2.4%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
CAR lead 25–23 since 1999
Meetings average 41.7 points. TB are 21-27 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Panthers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 11/22 | 124 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cam Newton | 12 | 51 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 10 | 50 | 5.0 | 0 |
| Cameron Artis-Payne | 8 | 25 | 3.1 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brenton Bersin | 4 | 4 | 54 | 0 |
| Greg Olsen | 2 | 6 | 28 | 0 |
| Ted Ginn | 2 | 3 | 18 | 2 |
| Ed Dickson | 1 | 2 | 11 | 0 |
| Fozzy Whittaker | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Corey Brown | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
| Devin Funchess | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
Buccaneers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jameis Winston | 26/43 | 287 | 2 | 4 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Doug Martin | 20 | 106 | 5.3 | 1 |
| Charles Sims | 6 | 23 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Jameis Winston | 4 | 12 | 3.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vincent Jackson | 10 | 15 | 147 | 1 |
| Doug Martin | 5 | 5 | 37 | 0 |
| Mike Evans | 3 | 8 | 32 | 0 |
| Charles Sims | 3 | 5 | 30 | 1 |
| Louis Murphy | 3 | 4 | 26 | 0 |
| Brandon Myers | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
| Cameron Brate | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Buccaneers; negative favour Panthers.
Half-point at risk
7.45%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
46.1%
Expected total
45.8est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-3.57
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-1.09