2015 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Jets

New York

QB Ryan Fitzpatrick

27·14

Dolphins

Miami

QB Ryan Tannehill

Wembley Stadium · outdoors · grass · 59°F · wind 5mph

Closing spread

NYJ -2.5

Total

42

Model margin

0.0est.

MIA perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Jets

Dolphins

Win probability

  • Dolphins
  • Jets

How each play moved the game.

Dolphins winsJets wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Jetsedge mapDolphins
  • +0.025EPA / play-0.032
  • 41.9%Success rate40.5%
  • +0.126EPA / dropback+0.008
  • -0.144EPA / rush-0.111
  • 9.3%Explosive rate9.5%
  • -1.27CPOE+1.20
  • 40.9%Third-down rate31.0%
  • 70.2%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
  • 1.90Points / drive1.42
  • 2.1%Turnover rate1.8%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

MIA lead 29–26 since 1999

MIA have won 3 straight. Meetings average 40.9 points. MIA are 24-28-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W7MIA @ NYJ28–25MIA
2025 · W14MIA @ NYJ34–10MIA
2025 · W4NYJ @ MIA21–27MIA
2024 · W18MIA @ NYJ20–32NYJ
2024 · W14NYJ @ MIA26–32MIA
2023 · W15NYJ @ MIA0–30MIA
2023 · W12MIA @ NYJ34–13MIA
2022 · W18NYJ @ MIA6–11MIA

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultNYJ–MIA
MIAQ1 15:00515Punt0–0
NYJQ1 12:14373Touchdown7–0
MIAQ1 10:4939Punt7–0
NYJQ1 9:13958Field goal10–0
MIAQ1 4:3733Punt10–0
NYJQ1 2:4939Punt10–0
MIAQ1 0:123-1Punt10–0
NYJQ2 13:34943Field goal13–0
MIAQ2 8:47530Touchdown13–7
NYJQ2 7:07630Punt13–7
MIAQ2 4:4039Punt13–7
NYJQ2 2:59970Touchdown20–7
MIAQ2 0:3330Punt20–7
NYJQ2 0:0500End of half20–7
NYJQ3 15:00978Touchdown27–7
MIAQ3 10:25639Turnover on downs27–7
NYJQ3 7:24622Missed field goal27–7
MIAQ3 4:3050Turnover on downs27–7
NYJQ3 3:2536Turnover27–7
MIAQ3 2:153-7Punt27–7
NYJQ3 0:45726Punt27–7
MIAQ4 10:58437Touchdown27–14
NYJQ4 10:0144Punt27–14
MIAQ4 8:011434Turnover27–14
NYJQ4 4:59510Punt27–14
MIAQ4 3:09758Turnover27–14
NYJQ4 1:4400End of half27–14

Box score

Individual performances

Jets

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Fitzpatrick16/2921811

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Chris Ivory291665.71
Ryan Fitzpatrick9343.80
Zac Stacy571.41

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Brandon Marshall7111280
Eric Decker45461
Zac Stacy23180
Devin Smith26140
Bilal Powell11120
Chris Ivory0200
Quincy Enunwa0100

Dolphins

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ryan Tannehill19/4419822

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jarvis Landry22914.50
Lamar Miller7263.70
Ryan Tannehill144.00
Jonas Gray100.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Kenny Stills58811
Jarvis Landry412400
Jordan Cameron29190
Rishard Matthews13160
Jake Stoneburner22161
Greg Jennings37150
Lamar Miller12100
Damien Williams1110

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -2.52.7%4.4%2.9%7.4%7.4%2.9%4.4%2.7%

Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.

Half-point at risk

2.11%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

49.1%

Expected total

44.0est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.49
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin0.00