Closing spread
NYJ -2.5
Total
42
Model margin
0.0est.
MIA perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- Dolphins
- Jets
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.025EPA / play-0.032
- 41.9%Success rate40.5%
- +0.126EPA / dropback+0.008
- -0.144EPA / rush-0.111
- 9.3%Explosive rate9.5%
- -1.27CPOE+1.20
- 40.9%Third-down rate31.0%
- 70.2%Red-zone TD rate65.1%
- 1.90Points / drive1.42
- 2.1%Turnover rate1.8%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
MIA lead 28–26 since 1999
MIA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 40.6 points. MIA are 23-28-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Jets
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 16/29 | 218 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ivory | 29 | 166 | 5.7 | 1 |
| Ryan Fitzpatrick | 9 | 34 | 3.8 | 0 |
| Zac Stacy | 5 | 7 | 1.4 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Marshall | 7 | 11 | 128 | 0 |
| Eric Decker | 4 | 5 | 46 | 1 |
| Zac Stacy | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Devin Smith | 2 | 6 | 14 | 0 |
| Bilal Powell | 1 | 1 | 12 | 0 |
| Chris Ivory | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Quincy Enunwa | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Dolphins
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Tannehill | 19/44 | 198 | 2 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | 2 | 29 | 14.5 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 7 | 26 | 3.7 | 0 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 1 | 4 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Jonas Gray | 1 | 0 | 0.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kenny Stills | 5 | 8 | 81 | 1 |
| Jarvis Landry | 4 | 12 | 40 | 0 |
| Jordan Cameron | 2 | 9 | 19 | 0 |
| Rishard Matthews | 1 | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| Jake Stoneburner | 2 | 2 | 16 | 1 |
| Greg Jennings | 3 | 7 | 15 | 0 |
| Lamar Miller | 1 | 2 | 10 | 0 |
| Damien Williams | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Dolphins; negative favour Jets.
Half-point at risk
2.11%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
49.1%
Expected total
44.0est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-2.49
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin0.00