2015 · Week 4 · Division
Final
FedExField · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 13mph
Closing spread
PHI -3
Total
46
Model margin
+5.8est.
WAS perspective
Push chance
6.2%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Commanders
- Eagles
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- -0.044EPA / play+0.022
- 42.7%Success rate42.6%
- -0.008EPA / dropback+0.166
- -0.105EPA / rush-0.191
- 8.7%Explosive rate7.9%
- -0.86CPOE+5.62
- 39.1%Third-down rate43.9%
- 66.8%Red-zone TD rate61.3%
- 1.56Points / drive1.81
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.9%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PHI lead 35–21 since 1999
Meetings average 45.6 points. WAS are 26-27-3 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Eagles
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Bradford | 15/28 | 270 | 3 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeMarco Murray | 8 | 36 | 4.5 | 0 |
| Ryan Mathews | 5 | 20 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Darren Sproles | 4 | 17 | 4.3 | 0 |
| Sam Bradford | 1 | 14 | 14.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riley Cooper | 2 | 3 | 72 | 1 |
| Nelson Agholor | 3 | 4 | 64 | 0 |
| Miles Austin | 2 | 3 | 51 | 1 |
| Jordan Matthews | 3 | 8 | 50 | 0 |
| DeMarco Murray | 2 | 2 | 12 | 0 |
| Zach Ertz | 2 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Brent Celek | 1 | 2 | 10 | 1 |
| Darren Sproles | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
Commanders
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirk Cousins | 31/46 | 290 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alfred Morris | 17 | 62 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 6 | 53 | 8.8 | 0 |
| Matt Jones | 7 | 11 | 1.6 | 0 |
| Kirk Cousins | 1 | 1 | 1.0 | 1 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamison Crowder | 7 | 12 | 65 | 0 |
| Pierre Garcon | 7 | 8 | 55 | 1 |
| Ryan Grant | 5 | 7 | 45 | 0 |
| Rashad Ross | 1 | 3 | 43 | 0 |
| Jordan Reed | 5 | 8 | 37 | 0 |
| Chris Thompson | 2 | 3 | 24 | 0 |
| Derek Carrier | 2 | 2 | 18 | 0 |
| Alfred Morris | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.
Half-point at risk
6.23%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
64.3%
Expected total
46.3est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.05
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential+0.24
- Expected margin+5.78