2015 · Week 4 · Division

Final

Eagles

Philadelphia

QB Sam Bradford

20·23

Commanders

Washington

QB Kirk Cousins

FedExField · outdoors · grass · 58°F · wind 13mph

Closing spread

PHI -3

Total

46

Model margin

+5.8est.

WAS perspective

Push chance

6.2%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Eagles

Commanders

Win probability

  • Commanders
  • Eagles

How each play moved the game.

Commanders winsEagles wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Eaglesedge mapCommanders
  • -0.044EPA / play+0.022
  • 42.7%Success rate42.6%
  • -0.008EPA / dropback+0.166
  • -0.105EPA / rush-0.191
  • 8.7%Explosive rate7.9%
  • -0.86CPOE+5.62
  • 39.1%Third-down rate43.9%
  • 66.8%Red-zone TD rate61.3%
  • 1.56Points / drive1.81
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.9%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PHI lead 35–22 since 1999

Meetings average 45.4 points. WAS are 27-27-3 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W8PHI @ WAS10–27WAS
2026 · W1WAS @ PHI22–24PHI
2025 · W18WAS @ PHI24–17WAS
2025 · W16PHI @ WAS29–18PHI
2024 · playoffsWAS @ PHI23–55PHI
2024 · W16PHI @ WAS33–36WAS
2024 · W11WAS @ PHI18–26PHI
2023 · W8PHI @ WAS38–31PHI

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultPHI–WAS
WASQ1 15:001489Field goal0–3
PHIQ1 7:223-8Punt0–3
WASQ1 6:02939Field goal0–6
PHIQ1 0:51433Punt0–6
WASQ2 14:4335Punt0–6
PHIQ2 13:0650Punt0–6
WASQ2 10:531151Touchdown0–13
PHIQ2 5:18350Turnover0–13
WASQ2 4:0331Punt0–13
PHIQ2 2:17720Missed field goal0–13
PHIQ3 15:00990Touchdown6–13
WASQ3 11:5439Punt6–13
PHIQ3 9:50542Touchdown13–13
WASQ3 8:17880Field goal13–16
PHIQ3 3:4936Punt13–16
WASQ3 2:59627Turnover13–16
PHIQ3 0:01343Touchdown20–16
WASQ4 14:40831Punt20–16
PHIQ4 11:31729Punt20–16
WASQ4 8:3530Punt20–16
PHIQ4 7:3235Punt20–16
WASQ4 6:051785Touchdown20–23
PHIQ4 0:26410Turnover20–23

Box score

Individual performances

Eagles

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Sam Bradford15/2827030

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeMarco Murray8364.50
Ryan Mathews5204.00
Darren Sproles4174.30
Sam Bradford11414.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Riley Cooper23721
Nelson Agholor34640
Miles Austin23511
Jordan Matthews38500
DeMarco Murray22120
Zach Ertz23110
Brent Celek12101
Darren Sproles0300

Commanders

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Kirk Cousins31/4629010

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Alfred Morris17623.60
Chris Thompson6538.80
Matt Jones7111.60
Kirk Cousins111.01

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Jamison Crowder712650
Pierre Garcon78551
Ryan Grant57450
Rashad Ross13430
Jordan Reed58370
Chris Thompson23240
Derek Carrier22180
Alfred Morris2330

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.3%6.2%7.4%3.2%5.0%3.3%

Positive margins favour Commanders; negative favour Eagles.

Half-point at risk

6.23%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

64.3%

Expected total

46.3est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+3.05
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential+0.24
  • Expected margin+5.78