Closing spread
ARI -7
Total
43.5
Model margin
+4.3est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 29–20 since 1999
RAMS have won 3 straight. Meetings average 43 points. ARI are 23-25-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 29/46 | 352 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 16 | 83 | 5.2 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| John Brown | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 7 | 9 | 99 | 0 |
| John Brown | 7 | 10 | 75 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 4 | 10 | 63 | 1 |
| Michael Floyd | 5 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
4.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.7%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.87
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.35
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.