Closing spread
ARI -7
Total
43.5
Model margin
+4.3est.
ARI perspective
Push chance
4.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Rams
- OutEugene SimsDEKnee· DNP
- OutMaurice AlexanderSGroin· DNP
- DoubtfulChase ReynoldsRBKnee· DNP
- ProbableBenny CunninghamRBKnee· DNP
- ProbableJames LaurinaitisLBNot Injury Related· Full
- ProbableKenny BrittWRShoulder· Full
Cardinals
- OutJ.J. NelsonWRShoulder· DNP
- QuestionableAndre EllingtonRBKnee· Limited
- ProbableAlex OkaforLBShoulder· Full
- ProbableJohn BrownWRShoulder· Full
- ProbableLaMarr WoodleyLBQuadricep· Full
- ProbableMike IupatiGKnee· Full
Win probability
- Cardinals
- Rams
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
STL lead 29–21 since 1999
Meetings average 42.8 points. ARI are 24-25-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | STL–ARI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | Q1 15:00 | 0 | 0 | Touchdown | 0–0 |
| LA | Q1 14:53 | 3 | 17 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q1 13:24 | 6 | 18 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LA | Q1 9:59 | 3 | 1 | Punt | 7–0 |
| ARI | Q1 8:32 | 8 | 33 | Field goal | 7–3 |
| LA | Q1 4:13 | 4 | -1 | Punt | 7–3 |
| ARI | Q1 2:14 | 12 | 51 | Field goal | 7–6 |
| LA | Q2 10:45 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 7–6 |
| ARI | Q2 8:56 | 4 | 32 | Turnover | 7–6 |
| LA | Q2 6:50 | 6 | 68 | Field goal | 10–6 |
| ARI | Q2 3:16 | 8 | 56 | Field goal | 10–9 |
| LA | Q2 1:13 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 10–9 |
| ARI | Q2 0:35 | 3 | 12 | End of half | 10–9 |
| LA | Q3 15:00 | 9 | 35 | Punt | 10–9 |
| ARI | Q3 10:34 | 4 | 50 | Turnover | 10–9 |
| LA | Q3 8:36 | 5 | 58 | Touchdown | 17–9 |
| ARI | Q3 5:44 | 9 | 55 | Field goal | 17–12 |
| LA | Q3 1:13 | 3 | -1 | Punt | 17–12 |
| ARI | Q4 14:52 | 5 | 41 | Field goal | 17–15 |
| LA | Q4 11:57 | 6 | 85 | Touchdown | 24–15 |
| ARI | Q4 8:16 | 8 | 80 | Touchdown | 24–22 |
| LA | Q4 4:38 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 24–22 |
| ARI | Q4 2:51 | 5 | 20 | Turnover on downs | 24–22 |
| LA | Q4 1:44 | 4 | 48 | End of half | 24–22 |
Box score
Individual performances
Cardinals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carson Palmer | 29/46 | 352 | 1 | 1 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Johnson | 16 | 83 | 5.2 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 3 | 18 | 6.0 | 0 |
| John Brown | 1 | 13 | 13.0 | 0 |
| Carson Palmer | 1 | -1 | -1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larry Fitzgerald | 7 | 9 | 99 | 0 |
| John Brown | 7 | 10 | 75 | 0 |
| David Johnson | 4 | 10 | 63 | 1 |
| Michael Floyd | 5 | 7 | 59 | 0 |
| Jaron Brown | 1 | 2 | 20 | 0 |
| Darren Fells | 1 | 1 | 17 | 0 |
| Chris Johnson | 3 | 3 | 11 | 0 |
| Jermaine Gresham | 1 | 3 | 8 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Cardinals; negative favour Rams.
Half-point at risk
4.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
60.7%
Expected total
44.4est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+1.87
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+4.35
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.