Closing spread
ATL -3
Total
52
Model margin
+2.9est.
NO perspective
Push chance
6.9%est.
the line sits on a key number
Win probability
- Saints
- Falcons
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.000EPA / play+0.080
- 46.4%Success rate44.6%
- +0.113EPA / dropback+0.161
- -0.195EPA / rush-0.078
- 8.5%Explosive rate10.0%
- -0.01CPOE+2.78
- 47.3%Third-down rate48.9%
- 54.2%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
- 1.77Points / drive2.09
- 2.7%Turnover rate1.7%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
NO lead 32–22 since 1999
ATL have won 2 straight. Meetings average 46.9 points. NO are 30-24 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Falcons
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Ryan | 30/44 | 295 | 2 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonta Freeman | 13 | 100 | 7.7 | 1 |
| Tevin Coleman | 4 | 40 | 10.0 | 0 |
| Matt Ryan | 4 | 10 | 2.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Julio Jones | 6 | 10 | 93 | 0 |
| Devonta Freeman | 8 | 10 | 56 | 1 |
| Leonard Hankerson | 4 | 6 | 37 | 0 |
| Jacob Tamme | 3 | 5 | 32 | 0 |
| Roddy White | 3 | 4 | 23 | 1 |
| Patrick DiMarco | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Levine Toilolo | 2 | 3 | 18 | 0 |
| Nick Williams | 1 | 1 | 11 | 0 |
| Terron Ward | 1 | 1 | 7 | 0 |
Saints
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Drew Brees | 30/39 | 312 | 1 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Ingram | 20 | 46 | 2.3 | 2 |
| Khiry Robinson | 7 | 23 | 3.3 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 3 | 10 | 3.3 | 0 |
| Drew Brees | 2 | 2 | 1.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Watson | 10 | 12 | 127 | 1 |
| Willie Snead | 4 | 5 | 55 | 0 |
| Brandin Cooks | 4 | 5 | 41 | 0 |
| Josh Hill | 3 | 5 | 38 | 0 |
| Khiry Robinson | 2 | 2 | 24 | 0 |
| C.J. Spiller | 4 | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| Mark Ingram | 3 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Michael Hoomanawanui | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Brandon Coleman | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.
Half-point at risk
6.90%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
56.8%
Expected total
47.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.41
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin+2.90