2015 · Week 6 · Division

Final

Falcons

Atlanta

QB Matt Ryan

21·31

Saints

New Orleans

QB Drew Brees

Mercedes-Benz Superdome · dome · sportturf

Closing spread

ATL -3

Total

52

Model margin

+2.9est.

NO perspective

Push chance

6.9%est.

the line sits on a key number

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Falcons

Saints

Win probability

  • Saints
  • Falcons

How each play moved the game.

Saints winsFalcons wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Falconsedge mapSaints
  • +0.000EPA / play+0.080
  • 46.4%Success rate44.6%
  • +0.113EPA / dropback+0.161
  • -0.195EPA / rush-0.078
  • 8.5%Explosive rate10.0%
  • -0.01CPOE+2.78
  • 47.3%Third-down rate48.9%
  • 54.2%Red-zone TD rate65.6%
  • 1.77Points / drive2.09
  • 2.7%Turnover rate1.7%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

NO lead 32–23 since 1999

ATL have won 3 straight. Meetings average 47.3 points. NO are 30-25 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W4ATL @ NO45–24ATL
2025 · W18NO @ ATL17–19ATL
2025 · W12ATL @ NO24–10ATL
2024 · W10ATL @ NO17–20NO
2024 · W4NO @ ATL24–26ATL
2023 · W18ATL @ NO17–48NO
2023 · W12NO @ ATL15–24ATL
2022 · W15ATL @ NO18–21NO

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultATL–NO
NOQ1 15:001280Touchdown0–7
ATLQ1 9:44749Turnover on downs0–7
NOQ1 6:0837Punt0–7
ATLQ1 4:213-4Opp touchdown0–14
ATLQ1 2:06980Touchdown7–14
NOQ2 14:12723Punt7–14
ATLQ2 10:18761Turnover7–14
NOQ2 7:1939Punt7–14
ATLQ2 5:29865Turnover7–14
NOQ2 1:54855Missed field goal7–14
ATLQ2 0:16314End of half7–14
ATLQ3 15:00726Punt7–14
NOQ3 12:141056Field goal7–17
ATLQ3 7:1932Punt7–17
NOQ3 6:421061Touchdown7–24
ATLQ3 2:231175Touchdown14–24
NOQ4 13:071176Touchdown14–31
ATLQ4 8:023-16Punt14–31
NOQ4 6:21412Missed field goal14–31
ATLQ4 3:571162Touchdown21–31
NOQ4 1:2937Punt21–31
ATLQ4 0:241-1Turnover21–31
NOQ4 0:1700End of half21–31

Box score

Individual performances

Falcons

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Matt Ryan30/4429520

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Devonta Freeman131007.71
Tevin Coleman44010.00
Matt Ryan4102.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Julio Jones610930
Devonta Freeman810561
Leonard Hankerson46370
Jacob Tamme35320
Roddy White34231
Patrick DiMarco23180
Levine Toilolo23180
Nick Williams11110
Terron Ward1170

Saints

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Drew Brees30/3931210

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Mark Ingram20462.32
Khiry Robinson7233.30
C.J. Spiller3103.30
Drew Brees221.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Benjamin Watson10121271
Willie Snead45550
Brandin Cooks45410
Josh Hill35380
Khiry Robinson22240
C.J. Spiller45170
Mark Ingram33100
Michael Hoomanawanui0100
Brandon Coleman0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -33.9%6.9%7.5%3.1%4.8%3.1%

Positive margins favour Saints; negative favour Falcons.

Half-point at risk

6.90%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

56.8%

Expected total

47.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.41
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin+2.90