Closing spread
SD -3.5
Total
48
Model margin
+1.9est.
SD perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Availability
The injury report
The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.
Raiders
- OutDenico AutryDTConcussion· DNP
- DoubtfulJustin EllisDTAnkle· DNP
- ProbableCharles WoodsonSShoulder· Full
- ProbableLatavius MurrayRBShoulder· Full
- ProbableTaiwan JonesRBFoot· Full
Chargers
- OutCraig MagerCBHamstring· DNP
- OutEric WeddleSGroin· DNP
- OutTourek WilliamsLBFoot· DNP
- DoubtfulManti Te'oLBAnkle· DNP
- QuestionableAntonio GatesTEKnee· DNP
- QuestionableChris HairstonTAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableChris WattCGroin· Limited
- QuestionableKeenan AllenWRHip· Limited
- QuestionableKing DunlapTConcussion· Full
- QuestionableMelvin GordonRBAnkle· Limited
- QuestionableSteve JohnsonWRHamstring· Full
- ProbableD.J. FlukerGAnkle· Full
- ProbableJahleel AddaeSBack· Full
- ProbableKyle EmanuelLBShoulder· Full
- ProbableOrlando FranklinGAnkle· Full
Win probability
- Chargers
- Raiders
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
The rivalry
SD lead 33–22 since 1999
Meetings average 43.8 points. SD are 31-23-1 ATS in the series.
Possession by possession
How it unfolded
Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.
| Ball | Start | Plays | Yards | Result | OAK–SD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAC | Q1 15:00 | 3 | 8 | Turnover | 0–0 |
| LV | Q1 13:27 | 2 | 2 | Touchdown | 7–0 |
| LAC | Q1 12:46 | 3 | 4 | Punt | 7–0 |
| LV | Q1 11:11 | 12 | 54 | Field goal | 10–0 |
| LAC | Q1 5:21 | 9 | 42 | Field goal | 10–3 |
| LV | Q1 1:18 | 6 | 77 | Touchdown | 17–3 |
| LAC | Q2 13:06 | 2 | 6 | Turnover | 17–3 |
| LV | Q2 12:25 | 5 | 17 | Field goal | 20–3 |
| LAC | Q2 9:28 | 3 | 7 | Punt | 20–3 |
| LV | Q2 7:58 | 6 | 54 | Field goal | 23–3 |
| LAC | Q2 4:41 | 7 | 18 | Punt | 23–3 |
| LV | Q2 1:42 | 4 | 63 | Touchdown | 30–3 |
| LAC | Q2 1:01 | 8 | 54 | Field goal | 30–6 |
| LV | Q3 15:00 | 8 | 90 | Touchdown | 37–6 |
| LAC | Q3 10:41 | 4 | 15 | Punt | 37–6 |
| LV | Q3 9:42 | 4 | 14 | Punt | 37–6 |
| LAC | Q3 6:54 | 4 | 11 | Punt | 37–6 |
| LV | Q3 5:24 | 4 | 17 | Punt | 37–6 |
| LAC | Q3 2:50 | 12 | 78 | Touchdown | 37–13 |
| LV | Q4 12:58 | 3 | 6 | Punt | 37–13 |
| LAC | Q4 11:21 | 17 | 78 | Touchdown | 37–21 |
| LV | Q4 6:00 | 7 | 19 | Punt | 37–21 |
| LAC | Q4 3:13 | 15 | 96 | Touchdown | 37–29 |
| LV | Q4 0:06 | 0 | 0 | End of half | 37–29 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Chargers; negative favour Raiders.
Half-point at risk
2.52%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
54.3%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)0.00
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+1.93
One or both ratings are carry-over priors — no games have been played this season yet, so treat this as a starting assumption rather than a read.