2015 · Week 7 · Division

Final

Seahawks

Seattle

QB Russell Wilson

20·3

49ers

San Francisco

QB Colin Kaepernick

Levi's Stadium · outdoors · grass · 75°F · wind 8mph

Closing spread

SEA -6.5

Total

41.5

Model margin

-2.1est.

SF perspective

Push chance

None

half-point line — cannot push

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Seahawks

49ers

Win probability

  • 49ers
  • Seahawks

How each play moved the game.

49ers winsSeahawks wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Seahawksedge map49ers
  • +0.105EPA / play-0.091
  • 47.1%Success rate38.8%
  • +0.255EPA / dropback-0.060
  • -0.104EPA / rush-0.150
  • 10.9%Explosive rate8.0%
  • +7.64CPOE-3.50
  • 47.8%Third-down rate30.2%
  • 63.8%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
  • 2.18Points / drive1.32
  • 1.4%Turnover rate1.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

SEA lead 31–21 since 1999

Meetings average 42.6 points. SF are 22-29-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W5SF @ SEA32–29SF
2025 · playoffsSF @ SEA6–41SEA
2025 · W18SEA @ SF13–3SEA
2025 · W1SF @ SEA17–13SF
2024 · W11SEA @ SF20–17SEA
2024 · W6SF @ SEA36–24SF
2023 · W14SEA @ SF16–28SF
2023 · W12SF @ SEA31–13SF

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultSEA–SF
SFQ1 15:0033Punt0–0
SEAQ1 13:371261Touchdown7–0
SFQ1 7:0132Punt7–0
SEAQ1 5:51840Punt7–0
SFQ1 0:59518Punt7–0
SEAQ2 12:58535Field goal10–0
SFQ2 9:37839Punt10–0
SEAQ2 5:41680Touchdown17–0
SFQ2 2:443-2Punt17–0
SEAQ2 1:41653Turnover17–0
SFQ2 0:432-5End of half17–0
SEAQ3 15:00627Punt17–0
SFQ3 11:0035Punt17–0
SEAQ3 9:02519Turnover17–0
SFQ3 6:241079Field goal17–3
SEAQ3 1:211159Field goal20–3
SFQ4 9:233-10Punt20–3
SEAQ4 7:063-9Punt20–3
SFQ4 4:5236Punt20–3
SEAQ4 4:0834Punt20–3
SFQ4 3:4237Punt20–3
SEAQ4 3:05422End of half20–3

Box score

Individual performances

Seahawks

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Russell Wilson18/2423512

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Marshawn Lynch271224.51
Thomas Rawls6325.30
Russell Wilson7202.90
Fred Jackson122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Tyler Lockett55791
Jermaine Kearse34640
Fred Jackson44330
Jimmy Graham25310
Doug Baldwin23190
Thomas Rawls2290
Ricardo Lockette0100

49ers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Colin Kaepernick13/2412400

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Carlos Hyde11403.60
Reggie Bush4215.30

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Vernon Davis46610
Anquan Boldin37390
Reggie Bush35130
Garrett Celek1180
Quinton Patton1320
Vance McDonald1110
Torrey Smith0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line -6.53.0%4.7%3.1%7.5%7.1%2.7%4.1%

Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.

Half-point at risk

3.08%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

43.5%

Expected total

44.2est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.04
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment+0.49
  • Rest differential0.00
  • Expected margin-2.06