Closing spread
SEA -6.5
Total
41.5
Model margin
-2.1est.
SF perspective
Push chance
None
half-point line — cannot push
Win probability
- 49ers
- Seahawks
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.105EPA / play-0.091
- 47.1%Success rate38.8%
- +0.255EPA / dropback-0.060
- -0.104EPA / rush-0.150
- 10.9%Explosive rate8.0%
- +7.64CPOE-3.50
- 47.8%Third-down rate30.2%
- 63.8%Red-zone TD rate54.2%
- 2.18Points / drive1.32
- 1.4%Turnover rate1.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
SEA lead 31–20 since 1999
SEA have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.2 points. SF are 21-29-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Seahawks
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russell Wilson | 18/24 | 235 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marshawn Lynch | 27 | 122 | 4.5 | 1 |
| Thomas Rawls | 6 | 32 | 5.3 | 0 |
| Russell Wilson | 7 | 20 | 2.9 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Lockett | 5 | 5 | 79 | 1 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 3 | 4 | 64 | 0 |
| Fred Jackson | 4 | 4 | 33 | 0 |
| Jimmy Graham | 2 | 5 | 31 | 0 |
| Doug Baldwin | 2 | 3 | 19 | 0 |
| Thomas Rawls | 2 | 2 | 9 | 0 |
| Ricardo Lockette | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
49ers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colin Kaepernick | 13/24 | 124 | 0 | 0 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Hyde | 11 | 40 | 3.6 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 4 | 21 | 5.3 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vernon Davis | 4 | 6 | 61 | 0 |
| Anquan Boldin | 3 | 7 | 39 | 0 |
| Reggie Bush | 3 | 5 | 13 | 0 |
| Garrett Celek | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| Quinton Patton | 1 | 3 | 2 | 0 |
| Vance McDonald | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| Torrey Smith | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour 49ers; negative favour Seahawks.
Half-point at risk
3.08%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
43.5%
Expected total
44.2est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)-5.04
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment+0.49
- Rest differential0.00
- Expected margin-2.06