2015 · Week 8 · Division

Final

Bengals

Cincinnati

QB Andy Dalton

16·10

Steelers

Pittsburgh

QB Ben Roethlisberger

Heinz Field · outdoors · grass · 62°F · wind 11mph

Closing spread

PIT -1

Total

49

Model margin

+2.4est.

PIT perspective

Push chance

2.2%est.

Availability

The injury report

The official league filing for this week — game designations first, then who missed or was limited in practice.

Bengals

Steelers

Win probability

  • Steelers
  • Bengals

How each play moved the game.

Steelers winsBengals wins

Matchup

Where the edges are

Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.

Bengalsedge mapSteelers
  • +0.076EPA / play+0.077
  • 45.3%Success rate45.8%
  • +0.229EPA / dropback+0.136
  • -0.144EPA / rush-0.034
  • 10.2%Explosive rate9.9%
  • +4.53CPOE+4.85
  • 39.6%Third-down rate39.0%
  • 68.5%Red-zone TD rate64.2%
  • 2.11Points / drive2.08
  • 1.6%Turnover rate2.5%

Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.

The rivalry

PIT lead 41–16 since 1999

PIT have won 2 straight. Meetings average 42.4 points. PIT are 38-18-1 ATS in the series.

Previous meetings
SeasonMatchupScoreWinner
2026 · W3CIN @ PIT27–30PIT
2025 · W11CIN @ PIT12–34PIT
2025 · W7PIT @ CIN31–33CIN
2024 · W18CIN @ PIT19–17CIN
2024 · W13PIT @ CIN44–38PIT
2023 · W16CIN @ PIT11–34PIT
2023 · W12PIT @ CIN16–10PIT
2022 · W11CIN @ PIT37–30CIN

Possession by possession

How it unfolded

Every drive: who had the ball, how far it went, how it ended, and the score as it settled.

Drive-by-drive log
BallStartPlaysYardsResultCIN–PIT
PITQ1 15:001468Touchdown0–7
CINQ1 7:46959Field goal3–7
PITQ1 2:5034Punt3–7
CINQ1 1:41417Field goal6–7
PITQ2 14:5558Punt6–7
CINQ2 11:083-4Punt6–7
PITQ2 9:1437Punt6–7
CINQ2 7:421036Punt6–7
PITQ2 2:571244Punt6–7
CINQ2 0:4700End of half6–7
CINQ3 15:00515Punt6–7
PITQ3 13:1235Turnover6–7
CINQ3 11:394-2Punt6–7
PITQ3 10:43973Field goal6–10
CINQ3 6:27654Missed field goal6–10
PITQ3 2:36972Punt6–10
CINQ4 13:351178Turnover6–10
PITQ4 9:0034Punt6–10
CINQ4 7:2630Turnover6–10
PITQ4 6:2724Turnover6–10
CINQ4 5:34745Touchdown13–10
PITQ4 2:5710Turnover13–10
CINQ4 2:4430Field goal16–10
PITQ4 1:471167End of half16–10

Box score

Individual performances

Bengals

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Andy Dalton23/3823112

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
Jeremy Hill15604.00
Giovani Bernard11212.00
Andy Dalton640.70
Marvin Jones122.00

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
A.J. Green11171181
Tyler Eifert48390
Giovani Bernard23220
Ryan Hewitt11220
Marvin Jones25120
Mohamed Sanu23100
Jeremy Hill1180

Steelers

Passing

PlayerC/AttYdsTDINT
Ben Roethlisberger28/4526213

Rushing

PlayerCarYdsAvgTD
DeAngelo Williams9717.90
Le'Veon Bell10454.50

Receiving

PlayerRecTgtYdsTD
Heath Miller10131050
Martavis Bryant49490
Antonio Brown611471
DeAngelo Williams44390
Le'Veon Bell22130
Markus Wheaton1250
Matt Spaeth1140
Darrius Heyward-Bey0200
Will Johnson0100

Where this game is likely to land

  • Model
  • Smooth (normal)
  • Betting line

Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.

line +14.0%2.7%7.0%7.5%3.1%4.7%3.0%

Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.

Half-point at risk

2.15%

outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5

Model home win

55.4%

Expected total

43.1est.

Model

Where the number comes from

Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.

  • Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.44
  • Home-field advantage+2.49
  • Quarterback adjustment0.00
  • Rest differential-0.56
  • Expected margin+2.37