Closing spread
PIT -1
Total
49
Model margin
+2.4est.
PIT perspective
Push chance
2.2%est.
Win probability
- Steelers
- Bengals
How each play moved the game.
Matchup
Where the edges are
Season-long league percentiles for both sides, mirrored. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge.
- +0.076EPA / play+0.077
- 45.3%Success rate45.8%
- +0.229EPA / dropback+0.136
- -0.144EPA / rush-0.034
- 10.2%Explosive rate9.9%
- +4.53CPOE+4.85
- 39.6%Third-down rate39.0%
- 68.5%Red-zone TD rate64.2%
- 2.11Points / drive2.08
- 1.6%Turnover rate2.5%
Bar length is league percentile, already oriented so longer is better. The saturated side of a lopsided row holds the edge; rows within ~12 points are washed as even.
The rivalry
PIT lead 40–16 since 1999
Meetings average 42.1 points. PIT are 37-18-1 ATS in the series.
Box score
Individual performances
Bengals
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andy Dalton | 23/38 | 231 | 1 | 2 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeremy Hill | 15 | 60 | 4.0 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 1 | 12 | 12.0 | 0 |
| Andy Dalton | 6 | 4 | 0.7 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 1 | 2 | 2.0 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 11 | 17 | 118 | 1 |
| Tyler Eifert | 4 | 8 | 39 | 0 |
| Giovani Bernard | 2 | 3 | 22 | 0 |
| Ryan Hewitt | 1 | 1 | 22 | 0 |
| Marvin Jones | 2 | 5 | 12 | 0 |
| Mohamed Sanu | 2 | 3 | 10 | 0 |
| Jeremy Hill | 1 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
Steelers
Passing
| Player | C/Att | Yds | TD | INT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Roethlisberger | 28/45 | 262 | 1 | 3 |
Rushing
| Player | Car | Yds | Avg | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeAngelo Williams | 9 | 71 | 7.9 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 10 | 45 | 4.5 | 0 |
Receiving
| Player | Rec | Tgt | Yds | TD |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Heath Miller | 10 | 13 | 105 | 0 |
| Martavis Bryant | 4 | 9 | 49 | 0 |
| Antonio Brown | 6 | 11 | 47 | 1 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 4 | 4 | 39 | 0 |
| Le'Veon Bell | 2 | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| Markus Wheaton | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 |
| Matt Spaeth | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| Darrius Heyward-Bey | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Will Johnson | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
Where this game is likely to land
- Model
- Smooth (normal)
- Betting line
Probability of each final margin. Football scoring clusters — the spikes at 3 and 7 are real, and a smooth model misses them.
Positive margins favour Steelers; negative favour Bengals.
Half-point at risk
2.15%
outcomes that flip if the line moves 0.5
Model home win
55.4%
Expected total
43.1est.
Model
Where the number comes from
Each component is additive, in points of expected margin.
- Team ratings (opponent-adjusted EPA)+0.44
- Home-field advantage+2.49
- Quarterback adjustment0.00
- Rest differential-0.56
- Expected margin+2.37